Aug 1, 2026 5:15 PM

With a work stoppage seeming all but guaranteed ahead of the 2027 season, how will the lockout impact how teams behave ahead of the trade deadline?

Major League Baseball's owners and Players' Union are on a collision course for a lockout when the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. How will a potentially lengthy work stoppage affect how teams act ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline? 

Why is there going to be a lockout?

The big-spending Dodgers have dominated the baseball world, claiming back-to-back World Series titles, with their eyes set on a three-peat. Both fans and league officials alike are pushing for baseball to fall in line with the NFL, NBA, and NHL and install a salary cap, limiting the amount of money teams can spend on their rosters per year in hopes that Los Angeles cannot simply outspend their way to World Series win after World Series win. Naturally, the players' union staunchly opposes implementing a salary cap, as it greatly limits players' earning power. 

Jul 31, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Katie Stratman-Imagn ImagesJul 31, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Among the players who have been vocal about the league's proposals, all of which have included both a salary cap and floor, is Pittsburgh Pirates' star pitcher Paul Skenes, who told Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "There's a line that we're not going to cross, and if we have to miss games, we'll miss games." 

How will the impending lockout impact the trade deadline?

"It's greatly complicated any player that is under contract beyond the rental," said ESPN's Buster Olney on the Just Baseball Podcast on Thursday afternoon. "Any time you get players involved where it goes beyond 2026, there are all kinds of variables at play in an industry that doesn't like variables... If you have a player who's a free agent after 2027 and you're trying to value what you're willing to give up for them, how do you factor in 2027 if you believe you're going to miss some or most of 2027?" he continued. 

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Olney continued to discuss teams looking to move on from bad contracts, such as New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, and questioned which team would be willing to take on his $35 million salary amid so much financial uncertainty.

How does it impact the Red Sox' thinking? 

The Red Sox reportedly expressed interest in acquiring Astros' star shortstop Jeremy Pena before Houston made the decision to buy, rather than sell. Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesThe Red Sox reportedly expressed interest in acquiring Astros' star shortstop Jeremy Pena before Houston made the decision to buy, rather than sell. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With the exception of Houston Astros' shortstop Jeremy Pena, every player the Boston Red Sox have been linked to ahead of the trade deadline has been a young, cost-controlled player with at least two years of team control. As noted by Olney, the calculus for teams is a simple one: why would you be in a rush to acquire inflated contracts with the threat of a salary cap looming large? 

Of course, Houston has since taken Pena off the market after determining they will be buyers ahead of the deadline, but with only 1.5 years of control remaining, is it possible that Houston was not willing to part with their star shortstop for a diminished return? 

Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow was asked about how a potential lockout has impacted his conversations with other teams during his bi-weekly appearance on WEEI's The Greg Hill Show, saying, "I think every team is handling this a little bit differently. I think we as an organization have to decide the way that we're thinking about it and kind of run our race relative to that."

Dec 9, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow speaks with the media at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. Jerome Miron-Imagn ImagesDec 9, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow speaks with the media at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

As for how the organization is approaching things, Breslow said, "The way we're approaching 2026 is more driven by the talent that we think we have on the team, the step forward we made last year making it to the postseason, and the organization's stated intentions of building upon that, more so than what might happen in 2027... We've got a great opportunity ahead of us in 26, and that's what we're focused on." 

Regardless of whether the players or owners win out in the end, it's clear that Breslow is approaching the trade deadline in a way that will be sustainable either way. By targeting young, cost-controlled players like Curtis Mead, the team will be in a position to supplement its young core with big-ticket free-agent signees. 

The MLB Trade Deadline is Aug. 3 at 6:00 p.m. ET. 

Up next for the Sox

After defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-4 on Friday night to break the franchise record for best winning percentage in a single month, the Red Sox will look to keep their three-game winning streak alive against the reigning World Series champions in game two of three from Dodger Stadium. Payton Tolle (6-6, 3.32 ERA) will get the start for Boston opposite Los Angeles ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-6, 2.72 ERA). First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET.

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