Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is in extremely rare company in recent baseball history, which juxtaposes with the very real possibility that he's traded from the organization this offseason.

Per Just Baseball on social media:

Only four players have 150+ extra-base hits since 2024:

Shohei Ohtani

Aaron Judge

Bobby Witt Jr.

JARREN DURAN

One of the most productive players in baseball could be on the move this winter

Considering that Judge has three MVP wins and Ohtani has four, that's incredible company to be in for Duran, who has 153 extra-base hits in the last two seasons.

The Duran file

--Now 29 years-old, Duran will play most of next season at 29. He won't turn 30 until September.

--He's under team control for three more seasons (through 2028). The Red Sox just avoided arbitration with him, so his $7.7 million contract for 2026 is already known.

--The All-Star MVP in 2024, Duran had a down, but still good, year in 2025. He hit .256 with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. He posted a 114 OPS+, leading the American League in triples for the second straight year (13).

Why would the Red Sox trade him?

Well, for starters, the Red Sox have a logjam in the outfield. Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela have long-term contracts, and Wilyer Abreu is younger. He's also a two-time Gold Glove winner, so Duran is really the odd-man out. Rafaela just won the Gold Glove Award this year as well.

He's also getting more expensive, as evidenced by his $7.7 million deal (and two more trips through arbitration to go). Do the Red Sox need to spend that much (and more subsequently) on an outfielder that doesn't quite fit?

The case for keeping him

Well, he's been productive. And two, the minute you think you have surplus at a position, somebody gets injured. Do the Red Sox want to play that game and then all of a sudden find themselves shorthanded in 2026?

It's worth remembering that they do have Jhostynxon Garcia ready to come up to the big leagues as well - and they still have Masataka Yoshida - so there is additional depth in the organization.

Do the Sox have real trade leverage?

Yes and no. On one hand, they have a good player with three years of team control remaining. That is always worth something in the marketplace. On the other hand, they have a player who very clearly is available, which tends to drive returns down.

The Red Sox can get a good player back for Duran, but can they get the kind of impact player they want? Would the Brewers deal one year of Freddy Peralta for three years of Duran? Maybe, but they don't tend to like to take on salary, which they'd clearly be doing.

Could they deal Duran to the Kansas City Royals for one year of Kris Bubic? Probably. Is that the kind of impact arm they want to slot behind Garrett Crochet? And the same money issue applies to them as well.

Would the Twins deal two years of Joe Ryan for three years of Duran? Seems iffy given where the competitive window is for them.

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