The free agent righty explains why he wasn't expecting to receive an offer from Boston.
On Thursday, news came down that the Red Sox would not be extending a qualifying offer to starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, making the 31-year-old righty a free agent.
Had the Red Sox sent a QO his way, it would have been for approximately $22 million. That didn’t happen, and now the burden will be on Boston to try and find a viable No. 2 starter behind Cy Young finalist Garrett Crochet.
Does this mean the team is gearing up for a trade with the Tigers for Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal? My guess is no, but there are people around baseball who aren’t ruling out the possibility.
Back to reality here:
In the minutes following Thursday’s 5:00 p.m. ET deadline for the team to send Giolito the QO, the newly minted free agent jumped on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast with my friend and colleague Rob Bradford.
"I wasn’t banking on [getting an offer]," Giolito told Bradford. "I was pretty sure I wasn’t going to get it."
When asked why he was so sure, he said, "Because I ended the year injured. That’s how it works, man. You end of the year hurt, you’re not in a good spot to command a qualifying offer or whatever. So, yeah, moving on.
"Yeah. I thought it was obvious. I went into this offseason knowing full well I would be a free agent. You end of the year hurt, it puts a bad taste in the team’s mouth. It is what it is. Now, the fortunate side is that it was like the most benign, weird, freak injury that went away after a few days. So, now I’m like, great. I’m having a fully healthy, amazing offseason. That kind of stuff happens. It’s just how it goes."
For the uninitiated - here’s why this matters:
As the Red Sox season withered away at Yankee Stadium in early October, one thing was clear: the team needs more pitching.
After Garrett Crochet pitched the game of his life in Game 1 against the Yankees, the rest of the rotation was nowhere to be found.
After a bounce back regular season, Brayan Bello only lasted 28 pitches through 2.1 innings in Game 2. And in Game 3, 23-year-old Connelly Early gave you all he could until manager Alex Cora opted for a bullpen game starting in the 4th inning.
After the four-year wait between postseason appearances for Red Sox fans, it was more than disappointing to see their team be the first since major league baseball switched to the three-game Wild Card format not to win a series after going up 1-0.
And to do it against the Yankees?
Honestly? Disgusting.
How did this happen? Why were the Red Sox left turning to a pitcher in his fifth career professional start in a do-or-die situation?
That’s because No. 2 starter Giolito suffered an injury to his throwing elbow in late September, ending his comeback season shortly before the postseason could get under way.
After missing the entirety of his first season in Boston while recovering from UCL surgery in his right elbow, how much Boston was going to get out of Giolito in 2025 was a massive question mark. But despite the occasional bumps along the way, the 31-year-old rounded into Boston’s most reliable pitcher not named Crochet, going 10-4 in 26 starts with a 3.41 ERA, striking out 121 hitters across 145.0 innings of work.
If you have that guy for the Yankees series, chances are we’re talking about a deeper run for Boston. Are we watching them against the Dodgers in the World Series? Probably not enough hitting to get that done. But at the very least, it would have been a much more enjoyable fall in Boston had Giolito’s elbow held up.
But with his future in Boston somewhat up in the air, he could not ignore the combination of flexor irritation and bone issues in the elbow he just had surgery on last year. Had he not addressed the problem, it would have led to larger issues down the line, potentially costing him millions.
Fast forward to now and Giolito could be looking to cash in this offseason after an upstart year in a Red Sox uniform.
Me personally? I’m winning the Giolito sweepstakes. They can afford it, and they need all the help they can get. It looks like what he was dealing with down the stretch wasn’t anything serious, so you can anticipate he’ll be a guy that can go out there and eat innings again for you in 2026.
If the front office is doing their job effectively, they’re extending this QO to Giolito - who has spoken numerous times about wanting to stay in Boston - as well as getting another big time arm to pair with Crochet.
…Skubal? I wouldn’t hold your breath. Twins righty Joe Ryan? That’s likely a more realistic option.
You get someone like Ryan to be the No. 2, and you’re feeling really good about Giolito in the three-spot with Bello and Early rounding out the rotation.
We’ll continue to monitor this situation at Roundtable as it develops.
Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.