If the Red Sox want to get serious about trading Jarren Duran, they need to get serious about the level of player he really is.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.
But for the Red Sox, in the case of Jarren Duran, it appears the duck may be valued like a golden goose.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel published a piece called “2025-26 MLB offseason: Ranking players who could be traded.”
Inevitably, the Red Sox were involved.
And if it’s a trade rumor involving Boston this offseason, you know it was going to include the 29-year-old outfielder.
Here’s what the guys wrote about Duran, who ranked seventh on their list of 25:
“The buzz: The Red Sox are valuing Duran more like the seven-win player of 2024 than his 4-win version in 2025. Either way, his addition can instantaneously make a team better, and Boston can hold out for a big return because the Red Sox don't have to deal him. At some point, though, the Red Sox will have to move Duran or Wilyer Abreu. Keeping full-time-quality players for less than full-time roles rarely works out well.
“The scouting report: Duran has elite bat speed and foot speed, along with a good arm, so his physical tools can lead to a return to something like his star performance from 2024. His foot speed pays off in elite baserunning value, ranking third in baseball over the past three seasons combined at +23 runs. His true talent level seems quite close to his 2025 production, which is still one of the top 35 position players in the sport. Duran has a ton of trade value because he's still in his 20s and has three years of control.
“Predicted chance of getting traded: 50%
“Team fits: Tigers, Royals, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Diamondbacks”
The key point here is the esteem the Red Sox are holding Duran in.
Just because the 2024 All-Star Game MVP was an almost nine-win player that season (8.7 WAR, to be exact), doesn’t mean they or any other team should expect him to reach those heights again at any point in his career. Here’s the WAR breakdown across his five seasons:
- 2021: -0.6 across 33 games and 112 plate appearances
- 2022: -0.2 across 58 games and 204 plate appearances
- 2023: 2.2 across 102 games and 362 plate appearances
- 2024: 8.7 across 160 games and 735 plate appearances
- 2025: 4.7 across 157 games and 696 plate appearances
While still an almost five-win player in 2025, it’s a far cry from his outlier season now two years ago.
If the Red Sox are serious about wanting to unclog the log jam that is their outfield, this is the guy to move. They need to take real stock in who he is, and get good value back. Whether it’s an answer at first base or some more depth on the pitching staff - whatever it is, they cannot go into 2026 with the outfield depth chart looking the way it does at the moment.
Unless, of course, Duran is willing to be a depth piece. If that’s the case, he would be overqualified to do so, and the team would be crazy not to keep him if they feel like it works within their self-imposed financial structure.
But with the funky restructuring Boston did with Duran’s contract in November, it became clear that the organization is preparing him to be a piece that could move ahead of spring training.
If Duran isn’t the one that’s moved, there is also a strong market for two-time defending Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu, who Passan and McDaniel had ranked 13th on their list.
“Abreu is three years younger than Duran, has won back-to-back Gold Gloves in right field and comes with four years of club control, which makes the high asking price understandable,” they wrote.
They went on to say that Abreu is heading into his age-27 season, which is typically the year where players peak in the majors. They said the Tigers, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Royals and Astros would all be fits for a potential landing spots for the right fielder.
For those keeping score at home, the Tigers, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Mets and Royals are listed as fits for both Duran and Abreu.
One of these guys is getting moved. It’s just a matter of time.
Boston would be smart to take some truth serum as it relates to Duran, and move him for a worthy package. Between him and Abreu, I’m leaning with the guy with an elite glove and a higher upside in the power-hitting department.
Should also be noted that Triston Casas was also listed in the “15 more that could move” section at the end of the piece.
Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.