The Formula Behind the Cincinnati Reds' Freefall From First Place

The Cincinnati Reds were the best story in baseball through April.

They led the National League Central at 20-11 and seemed ready to take the next step after sneaking into the playoffs last October.

Then everything fell apart.

Cincinnati sits at 26-24 through May 23, fifth in a division they were leading less than a month ago.

The Reds dropped 13 of 17 games before salvaging two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week, but the damage from that stretch is hard to ignore.

The numbers behind this collapse are almost too clean.

Over their last 25 games, the Reds have gone from one of the best team ERAs in baseball to the worst.

In Chase Burns and Andrew Abbott starts during that stretch, Cincinnati is 8-2.

In starts from everybody else over the last 23 games, they are 0-13.

Zero wins in 13 starts from pitchers not named Burns or Abbott.

Burns has been the breakout arm of the Reds' season, piling up 64 strikeouts across 59 innings through 10 starts with a 0.72 ERA in May alone.

Abbott was rough early on with a 6.59 ERA through his first six outings, but he has flipped it since then and gone 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last four.

Past those two, the rotation has been a mess.

Brady Singer is sitting near a 6.00 ERA.

Nick Lodolo missed the first five weeks with a blister issue and only recently rejoined the staff.

Brandon Williamson is on the 60-day injured list with shoulder fatigue.

Rhett Lowder went down too after his numbers started to slip.

Cincinnati went with a six-man rotation to open the year without their ace, trying to spread out the workload, and the depth just was not there.

The one thing keeping this from being a real crisis is that Hunter Greene is getting close.

Greene threw a 2.76 ERA across 107 innings last year with 132 strikeouts, and he is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session since arthroscopic elbow surgery on May 26.

Cincinnati is targeting a July return and slotting Greene back in would reshape this whole staff.

He talked before the season about the ceiling of this pitching group, and that ceiling is still very real.

A front three of Greene, Burns and Abbott would be one of the better trios in the National League, and suddenly guys who have been struggling only need to hold down a fourth or fifth spot instead of carrying the load.

The Reds are banged up, but definitely not finished.

Half the rotation is dealing with injuries, and the other half has been inconsistent, but if Cincinnati can hang around through June, Greene coming back in July changes the math entirely.

Whether they can tread water long enough is the question nobody can answer yet.