Estevez's velocity is down, but should there be concern?
Carlos Estevez led all of Major League Baseball with 42 saves in 2025.
He earned his second All-Star selection, posted a 2.45 ERA across 67 appearances and became the first Kansas City Royals closer to lead the league in saves since Dan Quisenberry.
So when his fastball showed up around 89 mph this spring, nearly seven ticks below his 2025 average, the concern was understandable.
Royals general manager JJ Picollo, though, has seen this movie before.
"It's hard not to notice it but we also had the experience of last year, and we went through the same thing," Picollo said Thursday in a phone interview with The Kansas City Star's Pete Grathoff. "And I think last year we were a little bit more nervous about it, because we hadn't been with him before."
Been Here Before
Estevez's Cactus League debut on February 24 against the Reds was rough.
He gave up back-to-back home runs to Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suarez, with an average exit velocity of 99 mph on batted balls.
His most recent outing on Wednesday against the Rangers wasn't much better from a velocity standpoint, as he walked three batters and didn't record a strikeout, though he did escape without allowing a run.
But Picollo pointed out that when the Royals signed Estevez before the 2025 season on a two-year, $22 million deal, they went through this exact same process and reached out to his former teams for confirmation.
"But not only did he tell us that this is how he always starts in spring training, but the other clubs he had been with, our coaches called their coaches and asked, 'Is this normal?' And they confirmed it for us," Picollo said. "So while you would like to see him more in the 91-92 range right now, this is exactly where he was last year."
The Bigger Picture
Even with that reassurance, there are legitimate reasons to wonder if Estevez can repeat what he did in 2025.
His 20.1% strikeout rate was a career-low and well below the league average for relievers, and his K-BB% dropped to 11.9%, his lowest since 2017.
He thrived by limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the park, holding opponents to a .199 batting average.
But that approach doesn't leave a lot of room for the stuff to dip even slightly.
Safety Net in Place
The good news for Kansas City is the bullpen looks deeper than it was a year ago.
The Royals added Matt Strahm, Alex Lange, and Nick Mears this offseason to go alongside returners Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber.
If Estevez takes a step back, there are arms behind him capable of picking up the slack.
Estevez also just pitched for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, giving the Royals another look at where his arm is heading into the regular season.
The velocity will likely climb as Opening Day approaches.
It did last year.
But if it doesn't, Kansas City has enough insurance, and at $10 million in 2026 with a club option for 2027, the Royals aren't locked into anything they can't walk away from.
Last spring's panic turned into 42 saves and an All-Star nod. It wouldn't be a surprise if this one ends the same way.