A sweep of Cleveland this weekend would make that chance look a lot more real.
The Kansas City Royals sit at 60-75 and have almost no mathematical path back into the postseason picture.
Fangraphs puts their playoff odds at 0.1 percent as they open a three game series at Cleveland on Friday, a number that would have looked generous two weeks ago.
Back then Kansas City was 50-73 and buried 10.5 games behind the final American League wild card spot.
The gap has closed some since, but not enough to call this anything other than a long shot.
The Numbers
Kansas City sits 8.5 games back of the Guardians for the third and final wild card spot, and 11 games behind the White Sox in the American League Central.
That gap has actually shrunk over the last two weeks, mostly because of an eight game winning streak in the middle of August that carried into a ninth straight win before Toronto finally snapped it.
The Royals bounced right back Thursday, beating the Blue Jays 13-2 behind five hits and six RBIs from Jac Caglianone.
Manager Matt Quatraro made sure to credit the turnaround after a rough game the night before.
"Five hits is a lot of hits," Quatraro said. "I mean, I know he was frustrated with himself last night the way things went, and to be able to bounce back shows a lot of maturity, some growth."
Nights like that are exactly what Kansas City needs more of heading into a series that will say a lot about whether any of this stretch run is real.
What a Sweep of Cleveland Would Actually Do
Winning all three games against the Guardians would pull Kansas City to 63-75 while dropping Cleveland to 68-69, cutting the wild card gap from 8.5 games down to 5.5 with 24 games left in the season.
That is still a difficult number to close in a month, but it beats where the Royals stood on August 14.
Even though the Royals are still far away from the postseason race, recent form has mattered for a team that spent most of the summer looking finished.
The Hole That Got Them Here
None of this happens without Kansas City digging itself out of an early hole.
The bullpen's struggles explained a lot of why the Royals fell so far behind in the first place, and losing Cole Ragans for the season to elbow surgery back in July only made the rotation thinner.
Tony Gonsolin is working his way back from his own injury on a rehab assignment, and getting him back healthy would help a staff that cannot afford many more setbacks.
A sweep this weekend will not fix all of that on its own, and the schedule does not get dramatically easier after Cleveland, with three games at home against Miami and three more against Toronto to open September.
But a stretch like that is winnable for a team playing the way Kansas City has played the last two weeks, and every win keeps the number moving instead of sitting still.
A sweep this weekend would not make the Royals favorites for anything, but it would turn a far fetched chance into a real number Kansas City fans can actually watch.
