The Royals need this pitcher to bounce back.
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo was tremendous in 2024. He even finished second in American League Cy Young voting after recording a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts across 206.2 innings of work. Lugo took a step in the wrong direction in 2025, though, pitching to a 4.15 ERA.
Kansas City would benefit from a rebound season from Lugo. So, what went wrong for him last year?
Seth Lugo's Difficult 2025 Season
Lugo looked like a completely different pitcher at times in 2025 compared to his '24 campaign. One of the primary concerns was his walk rate. In 2024, Lugo ranked in the 86th percentile with a 5.7 percent walk rate. As for 2025, the right-handed hurler turned in a 9.0 percent rate, which placed in the 32nd percentile.
Overall, he was below average in many underlying statistics a season ago. Aside from walk percentage, Lugo was closer to league average in many statistics in 2024. However, he was tremendous at limiting runs. Lugo ranked in the 98th percentile in pitching run value and 96th percentile in fastball run value and breaking run value. Meanwhile, Lugo was in the 10th percentile in pitching run value in 2025.
Lugo also saw a decline in his velocity. In 2025, he ranked in the 12th percentile for fastball velocity at an average of 91.5 MPH.
Decline may be the primary concern with Lugo, who is 36 years old. Despite his concerning underlying numbers, Lugo was still able to avoid pitching at an especially alarming rate. A 4.15 ERA is far from ideal, but it also is not the worst ERA in baseball. Lugo can still be a reliable No. 4 or No. 5 starter with that type of number, but the underlying statistics do suggest that further regression may come to fruition.
So, the question that the Royals need to answer comes down to Lugo's future with the ball club. Does Kansas City still envision Lugo being part of the rotation for the next couple of years, as he is under contract through 2027 and has an option for 2028.
He will begin the '26 campaign with the Royals. If he continues to underperform, Kansas City could consider moving in a different direction. If Seth Lugo can pitch at around a 4.00 ERA, though, then perhaps the team will keep him as a No. 4 or No. 5 guy in the rotation.