Who: Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers 

When: Comerica Park

Time: 3:08pm EST

Where to watch: FS1

Listen:  97.1 The Ticket, LaZ WDTW 1310AM/107.9FM

Seattle Mariners Lineup:

Randy Arozarena (LF)

Cal Raleigh (C)

Julio Rodriguez (CF)

Jorge Polanco (2B)

Josh Naylor (1B)

Eugenio Suarez (3B)

Dominic Canzone (DH)

Victor Robles (RF)

J.P. Crawford (SS)

RHP Bryce Miller (SP)

Detroit Tigers Lineup:

Kerry Carpenter (RF)

Gleyber Torres (2B)

Colt Keith (DH)

Riley Greene (LF)

Spencer Torkelson (1B)

Zach McKinstry (3B)

Dillon Dingler (C)

Parker Meadows (CF)

Javier Báez (SS)

Casey Mize (SP)

It's simple. The Detroit Tigers win today, they will force a Game 5 in Seattle on Friday. If they lose, they will stay home and start to pack up for the winter. Despite the offensive woes and the fact the Tigers are 0-8 in the last eight home games and Seattle's ability to draw power from anywhere in the lineup, there are three ways that the Tigers can do to win this afternoon. 

1. Attack Bryce Miller’s fastball early and work the splitter late

Bryce Miller’s 2025 Statcast profile tells a clear story:

• He throws his four-seamer 41% of the time, averaging 94.8 mph, but it has become hittable (.255 BA, .469 SLG, .397 wOBA).
• His split-finger (19%) and knuckle curve (11%) are his best weapons, with whiff rates above 35%, especially to left-handers.
• Righties have done damage early in counts when he tries to establish his four-seamer. Once he’s ahead, the splitter dives out of the zone and generates weak contact.

Statcast ideas on how to attack Miller

Kerry Carpenter (RF) – Carpenter feasts on fastballs (.520 SLG vs FF). He should look first-pitch fastball and aim gap-to-gap before Miller gets to his splitter

. Gleyber Torres (2B) – Torres’ best zone is inner-half fastballs. Expect Miller to attack outer-third; Torres must stay patient and drive the ball to right-center rather than roll over.

Colt Keith (DH) – Left-handers have hit .282 with a .460 SLG off Miller’s four-seamer. Keith should sit middle-up fastball and avoid chasing the splitter below the knees.

Riley Greene (LF) – Greene’s zone discipline makes him ideal to extend at-bats. Force Miller past 15 pitches by the second inning; fatigue raises his splitter vertical break and command wavers. Spencer Torkelson (1B) – Miller’s sinker (.316 BA) runs back over the plate to righties; Torkelson can hunt it if he looks middle-in.

Zach McKinstry (3B) – His contact profile fits “move-the-runner” work. Miller’s cutter and slider both sit 85-87 mph; McKinstry can slap those the opposite way.

Dillon Dingler (C) – Must be selective. The splitter tunnels well off the four-seamer; taking a few early could generate walks.

Parker Meadows (CF) – His swing path matches Miller’s low-ride fastball poorly; he should bunt or look to slap singles, not lift.

Javier Báez (SS) – Miller’s knuckle-curve breaks glove-side and low; Báez must resist chasing it. Shorten up and look heater only.

Execution Plan

1. First-pitch aggression: The Tigers should attack early in counts when Miller’s using his fastball to get ahead — he throws it nearly half the time on first pitches.
2. Lay off the splitter below the zone: Detroit hitters have been over-aggressive recently; discipline here will drive Miller’s pitch count.
3. Force long innings: Once Miller exceeds 75 pitches, his four-seamer velocity dips from 95 → 93 mph and splitter command fades

If they can manufacture 2–3 runs in small doses rather than waiting for a big inning, they’ll stay in the game.

Statcast plan for Casey Mize against Seattle

Matchup Blueprint vs. Seattle’s Order

Randy Arozarena (R) – Handles velocity, but chases down-and-away. → Start with backdoor sliders, finish with splitters below the zone. Never give inner-half heaters.

Cal Raleigh (S) – Pulled 27 HR on inner-third mistakes. → Elevate fastball up and in to change eye level, then splitter under the zone.

Julio Rodríguez (R) – Fastball killer (.330 BA vs FF), but struggles on splitters (.188 BA). → Sequence: first-pitch sinker away → slider low → splitter chase. Avoid center-cut four-seamers.

Jorge Polanco (S) – Patient; whiffs only 18 % on sliders. → Use knuckle-curve for strike one, then splitters fading away.

Josh Naylor (L) – Pull-happy, crushes middle-in. → Heavy dose of splitters off the plate; slider under hands when ahead.

Eugenio Suárez (R) – Dead-red, uppercut swing. → Pound low-and-away slider/splitter combo; use high fastball sparingly.

Dominic Canzone (L) – Contact-oriented. → Attack outer half early with fastballs; induce rollover grounders.

Victor Robles (R) – Low power; attack zone directly. → Get quick outs with sinkers and early sliders.

J.P. Crawford (L) – Leadoff-type patience even late in lineup. → First-pitch strikes mandatory; work splitter away after 0-1.

How can Mize win today?

1. East–West Command: Mize’s success depends on moving the ball horizontally. His induced-break chart shows 16″ arm-side on the sinker and 8″ glove-side on the slider — perfect to expand both edges of the zone.
2. Split-Finger as the Equalizer: With a +8.4 run value and .194 AVG against, this pitch should be the finisher for RHH and LHH alike. It mirrors his four-seamer’s tunnel before dropping 30 inches vertically.
3. Avoid First-Pitch Predictability: Opponents slug .519 on first-pitch fastballs. Open with the knuckle-curve or slider to disrupt timing, then attack with velocity once ahead.
4. Ground-Ball Priority: Seattle thrives on launch angle. Keep average launch angle < 10° by leaning on sinkers and splitters. Anything elevated to Julio or Suárez becomes a mistake swing.

Goals for today

• ≤ 3 runs over 6 IP
• 55 % ground-ball rate
• ≥ 30 % splitter usage
• No home runs on four-seamers. Or none at all.

Mize isn’t a strikeout-heavy arm; he wins with movement and sequencing. The Mariners’ right-hand power (Rodríguez, Suárez) feeds on flat heaters. If Mize keeps his splitter and slider working off his sinker, owns the edges, and avoids predictable fastballs early, he can neutralize the middle of this lineup and hand the ball to the bullpen with a lead. When he can draw swings and misses, Mize is the All-Star he was earlier in the year.

3. Get it to Kyle Finnegan 

7th–8th innings: Tyler Holton is the swing piece. His ability to change speeds and eye levels is vital against Seattle’s lefty-heavy middle (Polanco, Naylor, Canzone). The Mariners rank bottom-five in MLB against changeups and soft stuff from left-handers, so Holton’s approach, fading changeup down and away, fastball up to disguise it, fits perfectly.

9th inning: Kyle Finnegan closes. His high-velocity sinker (96–97 mph) and power slider give Seattle’s right-handers a different look from Holton. The key is command at the top of the zone; the Mariners chase high fastballs late in games, especially after seeing offspeed arms.