Tarik Skubal's NLCS start begins the next phase of evaluating Tigers' blockbuster trade

Tarik Skubal will take the mound Sunday night for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, exactly the type of assignment the Los Angeles Dodgers envisioned when they acquired him from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline. For Tigers fans, it also represents the beginning of a different phase in evaluating the biggest move the organization made in 2026.

Detroit sent the back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner to Los Angeles on Aug. 2 for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handed pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith. Hope and Ryan were both ranked among MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects at the time of the trade, while Smith immediately became another notable pitching prospect in a Detroit system that had already begun rebuilding its organizational depth.

Two months later, Skubal is pitching precisely the kind of game Los Angeles acquired him to pitch. He will start against Milwaukee at American Family Field on Sunday at 8 p.m., with the Brewers countering with Jacob Misiorowski in one of the best pitching matchups of the postseason.

Skubal has already delivered during his first postseason with the Dodgers. He allowed one run over six innings and struck out seven in Game 1 of the NL Division Series against Atlanta, continuing a postseason track record that has produced a 1.97 ERA through seven career playoff starts.

None of that should automatically restart the debate over whether Detroit should have traded him.

The Tigers did not move Skubal because they believed they were better without one of baseball’s best pitchers. They moved him because their season had collapsed, his free agency was approaching and they believed turning one elite player into multiple long-term assets provided a better path toward sustained contention.

Los Angeles operates under a different set of circumstances. The Dodgers entered Sunday seeking a third consecutive World Series championship, and their roster is built to maximize the present rather than wait several seasons for prospects to develop. Milwaukee, meanwhile, won 103 games and actually pursued Skubal before the deadline, creating an interesting alternate scenario in which Skubal and Misiorowski could have been pitching in the same rotation instead of against each other Sunday night Detroit’s return has barely started its own evaluation period.

Hope finished the season as one of the Tigers’ most important position-player prospects and is now continuing his year in the Arizona Fall League. Ryan provides another high-upside pitching option once healthy, while Smith joined a growing group of young arms Detroit hopes can eventually contribute either to the rotation or bullpen.

That is why judging the Skubal trade based on what happens Sunday night would be pointless.

Skubal could throw eight scoreless innings and the rationale behind Detroit’s decision would remain the same. He could struggle against Milwaukee and it would not suddenly mean the Tigers won the trade, either.

The real evaluation will take years because the two organizations wanted completely different things from the transaction.

Los Angeles wanted an ace capable of starting Game 1 of an NLCS and potentially pitching multiple times in a seven-game series. Detroit wanted multiple players who could contribute throughout the next competitive window rather than potentially losing Skubal for considerably less value later.

There will inevitably be Tigers fans watching Skubal and wondering what October might have looked like had Detroit’s season gone differently. Considering how dominant he became in Detroit, that reaction is understandable, but the more relevant question now is what Hope, Ryan and Smith eventually become.

Skubal is already doing his part for the Dodgers. The Tigers’ side of the trade is only beginning.