Detroit faces a daunting climb toward October, needing an elite final stretch and crucial divisional victories to transform a statistical long shot into a miraculous postseason reality.
It's about a one-in-a-million shot that the Detroit Tigers defy the odds and launch themselves into the postseason.
But sometimes, all you need is a chance.
And believe it or not, we're telling you there's still a chance.
Most Tigers fans pout when their team gets brought up. The array of excuses and reasons to hate on the team spews from their mouths faster than an auctioneer.
Yet, some Tigers fans don't fight back. They merely listen and laugh inside.
Because when the team still has a chance, those fans still believe.
Some might say it's crazy. Others might just say it's sports. Regardless of the reasoning, it doesn't change the fact that there are still Tigers fans who believe Detroit can somehow pull off the impossible.
So, let's take a look at just how the Tigers could do it.
The Mountain Detroit Must Climb
The Tigers are currently sitting 10 games under .500 at 63-73 with just 26 games remaining.
Detroit currently sits ninth in the American League Wild Card race and needs to climb all the way into the top three. The final Wild Card spot is currently held by the Cleveland Guardians at 69-68.
The Tigers sit 5.5 games back.
The hill looks daunting. Near impossible.
But that's just the way the Tigers seem to like it.
So, how do the odds change over the final 26 games?
If Detroit goes 16-10 over its final 26 games, there is roughly a 0.7% chance the Tigers find their way into the dance.
Improve that by one win to 17-9, and the odds jump to approximately 6%.
At 18-8, Detroit's chances improve significantly to around 23%.
Then things start to get interesting.
If the Tigers can win 19 of their final 26 games, they would have roughly a 51% chance of playing October baseball.
Twenty wins from here would give Detroit approximately a 74% chance of reaching the postseason, while a 21-5 record or better would give the Tigers around a 92% chance.
So yes, the path is incredibly difficult.
But it is still a path.
Who Does Detroit Play?
The Tigers play four divisional series over the final month, accounting for 14 of their remaining 26 games.
Detroit's next 10 games all come against division opponents, including two series against the Minnesota Twins, who sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Tigers, and a crucial four-game series against the aforementioned Guardians.
Later in the month, Detroit gets a chance at revenge against the Chicago White Sox after being swept by Chicago earlier in August.
The Tigers will also face the Toronto Blue Jays, who sit just 1.5 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot, making every game in that series as crucial as ever.
Detroit also faces three National League opponents: the Washington Nationals (65-74), Pittsburgh Pirates (67-71), and Colorado Rockies (52-85).
Playing the Rockies, the worst team in the National League, could provide Detroit with an opportunity to pick up some much-needed wins. There is also a revenge factor against Pittsburgh, as the Pirates helped start the tumble that eventually turned into the cliff dive Detroit has experienced over its last five series.
The Tigers have lost all five.
Can Detroit Actually Do It?
Will the Tigers make the playoffs?
Probably not.
Their current odds of around 1.5% suggest Detroit's postseason fate is nearly sealed.
But nearly isn't completely.
The Tigers are still alive.
Detroit will likely need to win close to 20 of its final 26 games to have a realistic chance at reaching October. That means playing some of the best baseball the Tigers have played all season while hoping the teams ahead of them stumble along the way.
It's a tall task.
Maybe even an impossible one.
But sports have a funny way of making believers out of people when hope is all but gone.
The odds may say Detroit is finished.
The standings may say the climb is too steep.
And logic may say it's time to start looking toward next season.
But as long as there is still a path, there is still a chance.
It may take a miracle for the Tigers to accomplish the feat.
But never tell the Tigers the odds.
