JoJo Romero's numbers suggest the Tigers should look elsewhere

The Detroit Tigers need bullpen help heading into 2027, but that does not mean every experienced reliever available in free agency represents a worthwhile investment. JoJo Romero has put together three consecutive productive seasons, established himself as a reliable left-handed option and contributed to Milwaukee's postseason run in 2026. On the surface, he appears to fit the profile of someone Detroit should consider.

However, his underlying numbers present a more complicated picture. With Tyler Holton already established in Detroit's bullpen and Drew Sommers emerging as another left-handed option, the Tigers should question whether paying Romero a substantial salary would meaningfully improve the roster.

Romero finished 2026 with a 3.36 ERA, 54 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP across 56 1/3 innings. He previously posted a 2.07 ERA in 61 innings during 2025, and his experience in high-leverage situations makes him an attractive candidate for teams seeking bullpen stability.

According to NBC Sports, Romero ranks fifth among major league pitchers with 77 holds over the past three seasons. He also delivered an impressive postseason performance for Milwaukee, allowing one run while striking out 11 across eight innings.

That postseason production will undoubtedly help his free-agent market, although Detroit should be careful about placing too much emphasis on eight innings when evaluating a multiyear commitment.

Romero's 2026 Baseball Savant profile raises several concerns, beginning with the difference between his actual ERA and expected ERA.

His 3.36 ERA was considerably better than his 4.45 xERA, which measures expected run prevention using strikeouts, walks and the quality of contact allowed. That discrepancy suggests his traditional numbers present a more favorable picture than his underlying performance.

The difference also existed in 2025, when Romero posted a 2.07 ERA despite a 3.48 xERA. Some pitchers consistently outperform expected statistics because of their approach, defensive support or ability to induce certain types of contact, but that does not mean the discrepancy should be ignored.

His contact numbers moved in the wrong direction during 2026.

Romero's average exit velocity allowed increased from 87.3 mph to 90.2 mph, while his hard-hit rate rose from 35.1% to 38.9%. His ground-ball rate fell from 57.1% to 51.2%, reducing one of his primary advantages as a sinker-heavy reliever.

Perhaps most concerning was his declining ability to miss bats. His whiff rate dropped from 27% to 22.1%, placing him around the 24th percentile among major league pitchers.

There were positive developments. Romero reduced his walk rate from 11.4% to 7.6%, while his strikeout percentage increased slightly from 21.6% to 22.7%. However, that strikeout production was approximately league average, not the profile of a dominant late-inning pitcher.

Detroit already has pitchers capable of generating ground balls. What the organization needs is someone who can consistently miss bats when protecting narrow leads.

Romero works primarily with a sinker, sweeper and changeup, relying on movement and location rather than overwhelming hitters with velocity.

His sweeper was particularly effective in 2025, when opposing hitters batted .181 and slugged .223 against the pitch. It generated a 33.8% whiff rate and finished with a plus-nine run value, making it one of the most productive weapons in his arsenal.

Those numbers declined considerably in 2026.

Opponents hit .224 against the sweeper, while its whiff rate fell to 26.2%. Its run value declined to approximately neutral, indicating the pitch was no longer producing the same overall results.

His sinker accounted for 45.3% of his pitches, but its underlying contact numbers were concerning. Hitters produced a .289 expected batting average and a .353 expected weighted on-base average against it, with a 50.6% hard-hit rate.

The changeup offered a more encouraging profile, allowing a .226 expected batting average and generating a 28.2% whiff rate. However, Romero used it only 16.7% of the time, making it difficult to build an argument for a significant contract around that pitch alone.

The combination suggests a reliever whose approach can still be effective but whose margin for error has narrowed.

ESPN lists Romero among its notable free agents but does not provide an individual contract projection in its top-50 rankings. Other outlets offer a clearer picture of his potential market.

FanGraphs projects a two-year, $16 million contract, while NBC Sports estimates three years and $27 million. Both predictions reflect Romero's experience, workload and ability to contribute in high-leverage situations.

For Detroit, I would be reluctant to approach either figure. My preferred offer would be one year at $6 million, with a club option for 2028. That would give the Tigers an opportunity to evaluate his performance without guaranteeing multiple seasons to a pitcher whose expected run prevention and contact numbers deteriorated in 2026.

Romero would have little reason to accept such an offer if another club guaranteed him $16 million or more. That is precisely where Detroit should be willing to walk away.

The Tigers need to distribute their bullpen spending carefully, particularly after declining Kenley Jansen's $12 million option. Investing approximately $8 million to $9 million annually in Romero would consume resources that could be directed toward a more dominant right-handed reliever or multiple lower-cost additions.

The Tigers already have Tyler Holton, who has demonstrated his value in multiple relief roles, and Drew Sommers, whose emergence in 2026 gives Detroit another intriguing left-handed option.

Sommers is particularly interesting when comparing underlying statistics. In 38 innings during 2026, he posted a 3.32 ERA and an impressive 2.14 xERA. His 32.6% strikeout rate, 36.2% chase rate and 64% ground-ball rate suggest a pitcher with considerably more swing-and-miss potential than Romero.

The sample size is smaller, and Sommers still needs to demonstrate he can sustain those results across a full major league season. Nevertheless, his performance creates a legitimate argument for giving him a larger opportunity rather than committing significant money to another left-handed reliever.

Holton's versatility also allows A.J. Hinch to manage different situations without necessarily needing another experienced lefty.

Romero would provide depth, but the larger question is whether he would offer enough improvement over Detroit's existing options to justify his projected salary.

The Tigers also need to account for Will Vest's recovery and the lack of an established closer after Jansen's departure. Those concerns make acquiring a high-strikeout arm a more pressing objective than adding another pitcher whose greatest strength is inducing ground balls.

Romero could still help Detroit under the right circumstances, especially if his market becomes less expensive than expected. His improved walk rate, recent durability and experience pitching meaningful innings deserve consideration.

However, the Tigers should be evaluating what he is likely to provide in 2027 rather than paying a premium for his 2025 ERA or his strong postseason performance.

At one year and $6 million, Romero would be worth considering as a complementary piece. At two years and $16 million, the value becomes considerably harder to defend. Detroit already has two left-handed relievers with meaningful roles, and neither requires the kind of financial commitment Romero is expected to command.

The Tigers need to improve their bullpen, but based on Romero's recent Statcast profile, I would prioritize other free-agent options before making him a serious target.