Tigers bullpen targets: Jason Adam’s strikeout decline complicates his free-agent case

Jason Adam belongs in the Tigers’ bullpen discussion, but the appeal depends on how much confidence Detroit places in his ability to recover strikeouts. The right-hander is a free agent, and his recent run prevention makes him an understandable candidate. His latest season also gives a buyer several reasons to examine the pitches behind the ERA. [1]

Adam finished 2026 with a 2.62 ERA in 38 appearances for San Diego, striking out 22 and walking 10 in 34 1/3 innings. That followed a 2025 season in which he posted a 1.93 ERA and struck out 70 across 65 1/3 innings. His strikeouts per nine innings fell from 9.64 to 5.77, a substantial change even with the smaller workload. 

Availability is part of the evaluation. Adam began the season on the injured list following left quadriceps surgery, returned in April and later missed time with a right shoulder strain. He rejoined the Padres in September. 

The Statcast results give Detroit a specific question to investigate. Adam’s strikeout rate fell from 25.9% in 2025 to 15.5% in 2026, while his overall whiff rate declined from 33.3% to 28.5%. His expected ERA was 3.78, compared with the actual 2.62. That gap is a reason to moderate expectations rather than simply carry his ERA into next season. 

There was still a productive slider. Hitters batted .192 and slugged .269 against it, with a 37.3% whiff rate. His four-seam fastball produced an entirely different result: an .864 slugging percentage allowed and an 11.9% whiff rate. Those fastball results came in only 27 plate appearances ending on the pitch, so the sample requires caution. 

The contrast suggests an evaluation focused on how the pitches work together. Detroit would need to determine whether Adam can locate the fastball effectively enough to keep hitters from waiting on his secondary offerings. Simply asking him to throw more sliders would be an incomplete answer. A pitch can perform well within an existing mix without maintaining the same effectiveness when hitters see it more frequently.

The Tigers have already added Emilio Pagán on a reported one-year agreement. That creates room to be selective about another veteran addition rather than treating every recognizable reliever as an automatic upgrade. Adam would make more sense as an additional option for difficult innings than as someone Detroit immediately pencils in to handle every ninth inning. 

My preference would be a one-year commitment with incentives and a club option, assuming the medical review supports it. That is a suggested contract structure, not a report of negotiations or an indication of Adam’s asking price. A guaranteed second season would require stronger confidence that the strikeout decline is reversible and that he can handle a larger workload.

Detroit should consider Adam, but the decision needs to begin with the fastball and his health. If the Tigers identify a credible path to more strikeouts, the slider gives them something useful to build around. If their evaluation instead projects a similar strikeout rate with continued availability concerns, they should prioritize another right-hander rather than pay primarily for the ERA.