There are stats that are hard to ignore that go beyond "just bad luck". This is why Baseball Savant comes in handy when it comes to looking at what is going on with a pitcher or a hitter. In this case, I used the data by looking at Jack Flaherty, who made history in one of the strangest ways possible.

Jack Flaherty has opened 2026 with two short outings that have produced an 8.22 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP through 7.2 innings. Across both starts he has issued 8 walks and hit 3 batters while recording just 6 strikeouts. That is an unsustainable command profile. The good news is that he has allowed zero home runs and his underlying 2025 metrics suggested significant ERA regression was due. The rotation around him is deep enough to give him the runway to work through it.

Flaherty retired the first eight batters he faced. He froze both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado on called third strikes through two perfect innings. Then command abandoned him. A Freddy Fermin single and a Jake Cronenworth single put two on and Tatis delivered an RBI single to make it a mess. A throwing error allowed a second run and Flaherty labored out of it. He gave them 4.1 innings on 89 pitches with only 49 going for strikes. That is a 55 percent strike rate. Most starters need to be at 62 percent or better to survive deep into games. Four walks. Two strikeouts. Three runs. A Game Score of 43. Not competitive.

Against his former team he looked dominant again early. Four strikeouts through two innings and no hits allowed. He also walked 2 and hit 2 batters in that same two inning stretch so the pitch count was already inflated heading into the third. The fifth inning cost him everything. Five Cardinals runs scored capped by a Jordan Walker grand slam that left the yard at 459 feet to left center. Flaherty exited having thrown 86 pitches with only 47 strikes. Three and one third innings. Four walks. Three hit batters. Five earned runs. The Tigers offense covered him with four home runs and an 11 to 6 victory but Flaherty's line was not something you frame.

Through two starts the combined totals read: 7.2 innings pitched, 7 hits, 8 earned runs, 8 walks, 3 hit batters, 6 strikeouts, 0 home runs allowed, 175 pitches with only 96 strikes. The walk rate sits at 9.39 per nine innings. The strikeout to walk ratio is 0.75. The FIP is sitting around 5.90. These are not functional numbers for a starter trying to give his team five or six innings.

The early Statcast readings drawn from the first start carry the asterisk of a tiny sample, but the directional data is worth noting. Average exit velocity against is 92.4 mph. Hard hit rate is 54.2 percent. The xwOBA allowed is sitting at .432 which is well above the .330 to .350 range Flaherty occupied for most of 2025.

The barrel rate at 8.3 percent is actually below last season's career high of 10.3 percent, which is the one legitimately encouraging number in the early data. His 2025 full season expected ERA was 3.97 with a FIP of 3.85 and a SIERA of 3.67. Those numbers told you his actual 4.64 ERA was running above true talent level.

The 2026 early returns are not yet enough plate appearances for Baseball Savant to generate reliable expected stats, but the directional indicators suggest a pitcher whose batted ball outcomes are running hotter than they should be.

Flaherty averaged 94.5 mph on his four seam fastball in 2024 and 94.1 mph across 2025. Early 2026 readings have him sitting around 93 mph which puts him near the 25th percentile among qualified major league starters. One tracked pitch from the April 4 start registered 93.5 mph with 2387 rpm of spin which is actually above his 2025 average spin rate of 2249 rpm on the four seamer.

Whether higher spin on a slower fastball compensates for the velocity loss is a legitimate mechanical question. His slider sits around 85 mph virtually unchanged from 2025. His curveball remains near 78 mph. The five pitch mix of four seam, slider, curveball, changeup, and sinker is intact. The stuff is there. The command of it is the issue.

Flaherty's walk rate went from 5.9 percent in 2024 to 8.7 percent in 2025 and the early 2026 sample is tracking worse than that. Eight walks plus three hit batters across 7.2 innings is a pitcher who does not know where the baseball is going on a significant percentage of his pitches. His 2025 times through the order splits told the same story from a different angle.

He allowed a .288 wOBA the first time through the order, .329 the second time, and .358 the third time. That escalation is not random. Hitters are timing him as the game goes on and the command issues make it worse because he cannot expand the zone or bury pitches when he needs to. In both 2026 starts he has been pulled before the sixth inning. He is not even reaching the portion of the game where the third time through the order has hurt him as of late. 

The Path Back Is One Variable

Flaherty's 2025 second half FIP was 2.92. He struck out 188 batters across 161 innings a season ago which ranked ninth in the American League among qualified pitchers. The swing and miss ability is intact. His two start strikeout rate in 2026 at 7.04 per nine is down from his full season 2025 rate but again the sample is negligible. He has allowed zero home runs through two starts. The barrel rate is down from last year. If the walk rate normalizes toward even the 8.7 percent he posted in 2025 the strikeout rate and the zero home run profile should push the ERA down considerably.

It's still early but important to point these things out, but the Tigers need Jack's command to be more consistent as their depth is being pushed already. 

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