It is strange to think around this time this year that Colt Keith was considered for first base because of the uncertainty surrounding Spencer Torkelson. Second base? The signing of Gleyber Torres had that covered.
But as he was the team’s DH, the numbers were not there. In 52 games as a designated hitter, Keith hit just .205 with a .600 OPS and a 61 wRC+. The contrast is hard to ignore. When he was in the field, his production jumped. At second base, he posted an .845 OPS with a 127 wRC+. At third, he recorded a .796 OPS and a 112 wRC+. Even at first base, he carried an .816 OPS.
The split is fairly straightforward: Keith has been far more productive when he is playing defense than when he is limited to DH duties.
The second-half trends reinforce that idea. From March through June, Keith posted a 41.8% Hard-Hit rate with an 89.1 mph average exit velocity and an 11-degree launch angle. From July through September, those numbers ticked upward. His Hard-Hit rate climbed to 45.5%. His average exit velocity improved to 89.9 mph, with a 92.4 mph adjusted EV. His launch angle nudged from 11 degrees to 12, and his average distance increased from 161 feet to 163. The result was more hits and more home runs as the season progressed.
As noted by Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL), the year-over-year growth was measurable as well. Keith’s 8.4% jump in Hard-Hit rate ranked as the 10th-largest increase among qualified hitters from 2024 to 2025. His Chase% sat 3.2% below the MLB average of 28.4%, reflecting improved swing decisions, more in-zone contact, and a slightly more loft-oriented batted-ball profile.
There is still another step to take. His fly ball rate climbed from 34.6% in 2024 to 38% in 2025, which is progress, but continuing to elevate the ball consistently will be key. The hard contact is there. The plate discipline is trending in the right direction. If the launch angle continues to stabilize and the ball gets in the air a bit more often, the production should continue to follow.
Which brings this back to third base.
The Tigers could have looked outside the organization. They could have added a veteran stopgap or chased another bat to shuffle the alignment again. Instead, they stayed within. That decision tells you something.
Keith is 24. The underlying metrics are trending in the right direction. The second-half gains were real. The plate discipline improved. The contact quality improved. The fly ball rate is moving upward. And perhaps most importantly, his offensive production has consistently been better when he is playing the field rather than serving strictly as a DH.
That does not mean the job is finished.
Third base is not a developmental luxury at the major league level. Footwork, reaction time, throwing consistency, internal clock, all of it matters. Keith still has work to do to firmly hold down the hot corner over a full season. There will be adjustments. There will be stretches where the league counters. That is part of it. He has 132 games at third base in the minors. But yes, we are aware that shoulder injury was perhaps why Detroit placed him at second. Remember the montages of him with Alan Trammell in the AFL? Well, there's some of him with Trammell at first but I digress.
But the Tigers are not asking him to be perfect. They are asking him to continue the same incremental growth that showed up in the numbers last year.
If the hard contact continues to climb, if the ball keeps getting in the air a little more often, and if the defensive reps translate into stability at third, the decision to stay internal will look less like a gamble and more like a logical next step.
Sometimes development is not about making noise.
If the hard contact continues to climb, if the ball keeps getting in the air a little more often, and if the defensive reps translate into stability at third, the decision to stay internal will look less like a gamble and more like a logical next step.
Based on the underlying trends, the improving Hard-Hit rate, the better swing decisions, the steady rise in launch angle and fly ball percentage, it is not unreasonable to project a season in the neighborhood of .280 with 25 home runs if that progression continues.
That is the bet Detroit is making at third base.
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