The right-hander is coming off a career night, but will he maintain that momentum?
The Minnesota Twins didn't just beat the Miami Marlins 3-0 on Tuesday; they did so in exciting fashion. Specifically, starting pitcher Bailey Ober built on a solid 2026 campaign with a complete-game shutout, logging seven strikeouts against no walks with two hits allowed.
The 30-year-old is now 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA over nine starts after going 6-9 with a 5.10 ERA over 27 starts last year. While he has bounced back thus far, it's fair to wonder how long it'll last given his lack of velocity.
Ober's four-seam fastball is averaging a velocity of 88.6 miles per hour, while the MLB average for right-handers this year is 95.1, via Baseball Savant. The 6-foot-9, 260-pounder explained how he has succeeded despite that disparity, via The Athletic's Dan Hayes.
“It’s just pitching,” Ober said. “The lost art of pitching. People are trying to throw as hard as they can all the time. Right now, I don’t have my best velo. But being able to mix off-speed and get it to my locations that I want to throw it to, getting the changeup down, and when needed, throw some fastballs up and in, and try to get guys off balance, that’s the name of the game. Especially if you look over the last 20 years.”
Bailey Ober Must Maintain Precise Command
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (17). © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn ImagesOber's lack of walks this year illustrates how well he's commanded his pitches. The North Carolina native has had more than two walks in a start just once, and he ranks 21st in baseball with a 1.02 WHIP.
Ober needs to continue that command given his lack of velocity. If he keeps hitting his locations with his variety of pitches, it'll help make up for that key flaw. In addition to his four-seamer and changeup, he throws a slider, sweeper, sinker, and curveball. It's not easy for batters to sit on the right pitch when a hurler has so many in his arsenal.
If Ober's command wanes, that will exacerbate his velocity issue. Power pitchers can get away with missing locations because it's hard to hit 100-mile-per-hour fastballs, but the veteran doesn't have that luxury.
The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round in 2017 and called him up to the big leagues in 2021, when he went 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA over 20 starts. He then made just 11 starts in 2022 due to injury, but bounced back with a 3.42 ERA across 26 starts in 2023 and a 3.98 ERA across 31 starts in 2024.
Ober has one more year of team control before hitting the open market in 2027.