Should the Twins be underrated in the AL Central?
New Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton recently appeared on Foul Territory TV and had an interesting take on where his team stands heading into the 2026 season.
"We play in a division where no one has really separated themselves," Shelton said.
It was a comment that sounds confident on the surface, but falls apart pretty quickly when you look at the rest of the AL Central and what the Twins have dealt with this spring.
A Rough Start Before the Season Even Begins
The Twins came into the offseason with limited resources and even lower expectations after finishing 70-92 in 2025.
Minnesota had a quiet winter by design, adding Josh Bell on a one-year deal and signing Victor Caratini as a backup catcher while leaning into a youth movement built around the prospects they acquired at last summer's trade deadline.
Then the bad news hit.
Ace pitcher Pablo Lopez suffered a torn UCL during the first full-squad workout of spring training and will miss the entire 2026 season after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery.
On top of that, young starter David Festa was diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement that puts his Opening Day readiness in doubt, leaving the rotation in a tough spot behind Joe Ryan.
Even Royce Lewis, who is supposed to be one of their cornerstone players, has already dealt with injury concerns this spring.
The AL Central Landscape Says Otherwise
Here is where Shelton's quote gets tricky.
The Twins finished last season, per Baseball Reference, with the fourth-worst record in all of baseball.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians completed one of the most stunning comebacks in league history by erasing a 15.5-game deficit to win the division.
The Detroit Tigers finished with 87 wins and added Framber Valdez this offseason to pair with Tarik Skubal, giving them arguably the best one-two punch in the American League.
The Kansas City Royals went 82-80 and are hoping to get Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic back healthy, along with another monster year from Bobby Witt Jr.
Minnesota sits in the mid-to-high 70s across most projection systems.
Shelton's Optimism Might Be Getting Ahead of Him
Saying no one has separated themselves in this division ignores the fact that the Tigers just signed one of the best free agent starters on the market and the Guardians won the whole thing last year despite everyone counting them out.
It also ignores the reality that Minnesota's pitching staff has been hit hard before the season even starts, and the team's best path forward in 2026 is probably about developing young talent like Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee rather than competing for a division title.
Shelton has talked all spring about wanting to build a winning culture and earn back the trust of the fan base, which is the right approach for a team that sold off most of its roster at last year's deadline.
But telling people the division is wide open when three teams above you have clear advantages feels like a stretch that even the most optimistic Twins fan would have a hard time buying into right now.