Minnesota Twins star Joe Ryan has emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball. He deserves credit for the success he's had. In 2025, Ryan made the first All-Star team of his career and finished the season with a 3.42 ERA across 171 innings on the mound. However, is there reason to believe that Ryan is a 2026 regression candidate?

While Ryan has become an ace-caliber starter, he's never been especially dominant on the mound.  He isn't necessarily an old-school workhorse either, as his 171 innings last year were a career-high. Overall, the right-handed hurler has pitched to a 3.79 ERA for his career.

Ryan's success stems from his ability to limit walks. He ranked in the 87th percentile in walk percentage in 2025. His heater, despite checking in at only the 37th percentile mark in fastball velocity, is effective and was in the 93rd percentile for fastball run value.

His breaking run value was below average, as it was in the 42nd percentile. Ryan's offspeed run value was poor and in the 4th percentile. Perhaps the most concerning statistic is that despite being a strikeout guy, Ryan's whiff percentage was only a little above average at the 57th percentile.

He throws his fastball a lot for someone who isn't among the hardest throwing pitchers in the league. In fact, Ryan relies on his heater over 50 percent of the time. His breaking pitches are not especially reliable, which allows hitters to sit on the heater. As a result, Ryan is a hurler who will surrender a concerning amount of home runs. In 2025, he gave up 26 long balls -- which was tied for the 14th most in the league.

Yet, Ryan has been able to find success for the most part. So, why is regression now a possibility?

Ryan will turn 30 years old in 2026. Age isn't the reason for decline yet, but it isn't as if we are talking about some 24-year-old who is still figuring out how to pitch in the big leagues. 

In other words, we know who Joe Ryan is. He's good at what he does, which consists of relying on a well-located fastball, limiting walks, and painting the corners en route to strikeouts. It's difficult to envision Ryan taking the next step and becoming a true Cy Young contender, though.

Opponents understand what Ryan's plan is on the mound, and they will make adjustments which may lead to regression for the pitcher unless he makes adjustments of his own. 

If Joe Ryan can develop more reliable secondary pitches, then perhaps he will avoid the aforementioned regression. For now, he is indeed a candidate to take a step in the wrong direction during the upcoming campaign.