Bailey Ober's Twins Future in Question as Young Pitchers Push for Rotation Spots

The Minnesota Twins are faced with a pivotal offseason decision regarding Bailey Ober, whose multi-year trajectory has complicated his standing in the starting rotation.

Ober finished the 2026 campaign with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP across 131 innings. While that marked a recovery from a difficult 2025 season where he posted a 5.10 ERA over 146 1/3 innings, it still fell short of his stellar 2024 form, when he anchored the rotation with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and 191 strikeouts over 178 2/3 innings.

An overarching issue behind Ober’s diminished dominance is a noticeable drop in velocity and bat-missing ability. Ober's fastball averaged 91.7 mph in 2024 with elite extension, but dipped to an 88.0 mph average in 2026. As a result, his strikeout rate plummeted from 9.62 per nine innings in 2024 down to 6.60 this past season.

This decline forced manager Derek Shelton and the coaching staff to handle Ober cautiously down the stretch. Ober made 11 starts after returning from a midseason IL stint for right elbow inflammation, with six of those coming on six or more days of rest, alongside the first relief appearance of his career.

“I felt pretty good for the most part this year,” Ober said, via MLB.com's Matthew Leach. “Today and the Pittsburgh outing, you take those two games out of the equation and the numbers look a lot different. Just have to battle through even when the plays aren't made, have to find ways to get outs and get out of the inning.”

Entering the final year of arbitration control with a projected salary estimated by MLB Trade Rumors at roughly $6.9 million, Ober represents a complex financial and roster puzzle for general manager Jeremy Zoll. The organization must weigh his proven durability, having logged nearly 750 career major league innings, against an influx of young arms. Promising starters like Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews are pushing for permanent roles, sharing a contract timeline with rotation fixtures Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer that could prompt the front office to prioritize youth. Furthermore, Pablo López is working his way back from Tommy John surgery.

Yet, moving on from Ober carries inherent risks. Pitching depth remains fragile, and trading him now could yield an underwhelming return given his recent numbers. Reflecting on his uncertain future with the only professional organization he has known, Ober told Leach postgame, “You never know if it's going to be the last one wearing this jersey. It's out of my control. All I can do is go out there and get outs, and during the offseason just to focus on what I need to do to get better and hopefully come back and be in a good spot for next season.”

Whether the Twins tender him a contract before the November deadline, explore a trade market where an experienced starter holds distinct value, or let him compete outright in spring training, Minnesota's next move with Ober will set the tone for their entire winter.