Minnesota Twins Should Avoid Long-Term Extension With Joe Ryan

The Minnesota Twins should not commit to right-hander Joe Ryan beyond his current team-control window. Ryan remains a valuable starter in MLB. There is no denying that. But Minnesota has questions about its competitive timeline, his late-season performance and his health that make a long-term extension an unnecessary risk right now.

Ryan finished 2026 with a 7-10 record, 3.79 ERA and 159 strikeouts across 144 2/3 innings in 27 starts. He allowed 21 home runs on the year. He can miss bats, but has not established himself as an unquestionable ace. He does have two All-Star selections but his second half performance was concerning. 

After carrying a 2.85 ERA into the All-Star break, Ryan gave up 16 earned runs across 15 1/3 innings in his first three starts after the break. Minnesota placed him on the 15-day injured list on August 7th with a left glute strain.

He returned September 7th after a rehab outing, but his first three starts back included two losses and eight earned runs over 12 innings. He did finish stronger, allowing two runs in six innings against the Texas Rangers while striking out eight in his final outing of the year, but the overall second-half picture was concerning.

Still, the injury does not fully erase his value. But an extension would mean paying for future performance before the Twins know whether he can stay healthy and maintain his first-half form across a full year. If he continues to crumble, there is no guarantee he could be a reliable arm if the Twins return to the MLB playoffs.

Minnesota finished 77-85 and third in the AL Central, eight games behind the division-winning Cleveland Guardians. They were in the hunt until the final month of the regular season.

Ryan is under team control through 2027. That gives Minnesota time to assess his health and consistency without rushing.

There is also a financial consideration worth noting. Committing to an extension now would likely take Ryan off the trade market, eliminating the possibility of recouping prospects or controllable assets at the deadline if the Twins find themselves out of contention next season.

For a team that finished eight games back and needs to add talent across the roster, preserving that flexibility matters. Keep him for 2027, see how he performs healthy for a full season, and revisit the extension conversation with more information. That is the smarter path.