Shane Smith, a Rule 5 Draft riser, faces his former team on Opening Day. His elite fastball promises another dominant season for the White Sox.
The Chicago White Sox deservingly named Shane Smith as their Opening Day starter earlier this month. Smith will officially get the ball in the team’s regular season opener against the Milwaukee Brewers on March 26.
That decision by manager Will Venable came as no surprise.
Smith will enter the season as the White Sox’s top starting pitcher following a breakthrough campaign in 2025. He had a 3.81 ERA, a 1.196 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts across 146 ⅓ innings pitched.
It was impressive to see Smith navigate his rookie season. The right-hander went from a Rule 5 Draft selection to an All-Star in the span of just one year. He became just the second player ever to make an All-Star team after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft in the same season. Now, he will be making his first career Opening Day start.
Funny enough, the team that declined to add Smith to its 40-man roster after the 2024 season is the same team that Smith will be facing on Opening Day. He might have some revenge on his mind after the Brewers let him go in the Rule 5 Draft.
It has really been a whirlwind past 15 months for Smith. He was essentially let go by the Brewers, drafted by the White Sox, appeared in an All-Star game, and named an Opening Day starter all in the span of the last 470 days.
What’s even crazier is that this is just the start of Smith’s career. He has the skillset and potential to be even more consistent as a starter in his second season.
The 25-year-old ranked in the upper half of the league in expected batting average against (.229), whiff rate (27.7%), barrel rate (6.7%), strikeout rate (23.5%), and ranked right around league average in expected ERA (3.99).
The two pitches that really make Smith such a dangerous pitcher on the mound are his fastball and changeup. Opposing hitters batted just .192 against his four-seam fastball and .200 against his changeup last season.
While both pitches carried Smith throughout his rookie campaign, his fastball is his primary weapon on the mound. As a matter of fact, he had one of the best fastballs in all of baseball during the 2025 season.
Smith’s Fastball Run Value (20) ranked in the 99th percentile among all pitchers. Only Ryne Nelson, Nick Pivetta, Jacob deGrom, and Bryan Woo had a better Fastball Run Value than him in 2025. His Fastball Run Value was also equal to Paul Skenes’ Fastball Run Value last year.
There’s simply no way around it: Smith has an elite fastball.
That fastball will be a large reason why the White Sox pitcher takes his game a step further this season. Opposing hitters had a .192 batting average, a .304 slugging, a 25.3% whiff rate, and a 39.9% hard-hit rate against Smith’s fastball in 2025.
Having such a dominant pitch on the mound will allow Smith to maintain his solid whiff and strikeout rates from 2025. If he is able to throw his other pitchers more consistently (changeup, curveball, sinker, and slider), he has the potential to blossom into a star.