The New York Yankees could have a major issue with Gerrit Cole that won't be fixed this season.
The New York Yankees had been waiting over a year to get Gerrit Cole back from Tommy John surgery, and his first two starts back this season were electrifying.
Cole returned late last month and tossed 12.2 innings over his first couple of outings, including a 10-strikeout effort against the Kansas City Royals on May 27.
He looked like vintage Cole on the mound, and it was beginning to seem like he wouldn't show any ill effects from his procedure.
But the right-hander's last four starts have been anything but classic Cole.
Most recently, Cole was shelled for five runs on nine hits over 4.1 frames in a loss to the Detroit Tigers on Monday night, and he has surrendered 13 runs across his last four appearances. He also failed to make it through five innings twice during that span.
Now, this is what you should normally expect from a pitcher — especially one as old as Cole — who has just returned from Tommy John. It's usually never smooth sailing early on, and the Yankees are now finding that out the hard way.
The problem is that it might not be fixable this season.
It's still a small sample size, but opposing hitters are getting serious lift on Cole's pitches thus far, registering a fly-ball percentage of 49.5 percent. That is leagues above his lifetime average of 36.5 percent, and it's the highest of his career.
New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole. Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images.Cole's second-highest fly-ball percentage? That came in 2024, when he didn't quite look like himself (remember: he had missed the first couple of months due to an elbow injury) and was at 44.1 percent.
Additionally, batters are pulling the ball at a 43.2 percent rate off of Cole, meaning there are getting around on his fastball much easier. And while his hard contact rate is only 25.7 percent (which is terrific), his soft contact rate is 13.7 percent. Batters are making medium contact 61.1 percent of the time, which is abnormally high.
Cole still owns a respectable 3.62 ERA through six starts, because, well, he's Gerrit Cole. But it seems fairly obvious that his best stuff just isn't there right now.
Perhaps the former Cy Young award winner will look just fine in his next start and return to his dominant form, but there is a chance we don't see that version of Cole again until 2027 ... or ever again.
The best-case scenario this season is probably Cole rediscovering his form late in the campaign, which would be just in time for the playoffs. That possibility absolutely exists. But it's also very conceivable that Cole might still be working on himself until next spring.
Again, those first couple of outings were great, but what we have seen since has been very pedestrian. He's surrendered five home runs over his last four starts, and his 4.24 FIP thus far on the season is the worst of his career.
There is every reason to trust Cole the pitcher. That's not the issue. The rub is whether or not Cole's body will cooperate before October, and after seeing him in his last several appearances, that is now a legitimate question.
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