The New York Yankees won't be keeping this star player if this occurs.
The New York Yankees have a lot of soul searching to do heading into the offseason, and one of their most important decisions will be deciding what to do with Cody Bellinger.
The problem is that the market may make that decision for them.
Bellinger is slated to hit free agency following a 2025 campaign in which he slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI over 656 plate appearances while also playing terrific outfield defense, particularly in the corners.
New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger. Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images.The 30-year-old is expected to have a robust market as a result. Basically any team would love to have him. That includes the Yankees, who could be up a creek if they lose both Bellinger and Trent Grisham this winter. And that could very well happen.
While the general consensus has long been that Bellinger will return to the Bronx, recent contract projections have certainly placed those predictions in question.
Tim Britton of The Athletic, for example, has projected Bellinger to land a seven-year, $182 million deal, and he isn't even ruling out an eight-year pact for the former NL MVP.
From an average annual value perspective, $182 million over seven years is hardly bad. That's $26 million annually, which is actually probably below market for Bellinger. The yearly salary isn't the problem. It's the years.
The Yankees have been burned on long-term deals before. They specifically handed Aaron Hicks a seven-year extension once upon a time, and they signed D.J. LeMahieu to a six-year contract following his brilliant pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
How did those two deals work out for New York?
Surely, the Yanks want to avoid a similar catastrophe with Bellinger, especially considering that there will be far more money involved this time (neither Hicks nor LeMahieu's deal even hit the $100 million mark).
It's important to remember that Bellinger is now in his 30s, and he has an injury history. He is also just two seasons removed from registering a pedestrian .751 OPS with the Chicago Cubs, and he has really only had two very good seasons over the last six years.
There are plenty of red flags regarding Bellinger, who faded down the stretch with a .791 OPS in August and a .690 OPS in September before flaming out in the playoffs this past year.
Is it entirely possible that Bellinger can replicate his overall numbers from 2025? Sure, and it's why I do think the Yankees should make a concerted effort to re-sign him. But I have a hard time believing they will go past six years for the Scottsdale, Az. native.
In fact, I even think six years might be a bit too long for New York's taste. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman would probably prefer to land him on a four or five-year deal. Four probably isn't realistic at this point. Five is possible if the Yanks give him a hefty AAV, but even then, Bellinger may rather have the extra two years if Britton's seven-year forecast ends up being accurate.
New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger. Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images.You kind of get the feeling that if Bellinger does command a seven or eight-year deal that the Yankees may just turn to Kyle Tucker, who is the better player and a year-and-a-half younger.
Even then, though, Bellinger, a Scott Boras client, might ultimately wait until Tucker signs before making a decision himself. Tucker will surely set the outfield market.
Maybe Bellinger really loves being in pinstripes and will simply re-sign rather quickly, but based on the sweepstakes that await him, it's difficult to see that happening.
Not only is Bellinger not a slam dunk to return to the Bronx, but if these prognostications are true, he might already have one foot out the door.