Dominant speed and playoff momentum have propelled the No. 5 team past Denny Hamlin, shifting the title fight and forcing rivals to chase Larson’s surging championship defense
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — Four races into The Chase and the picture is getting clearer by the week.
Kyle Larson has every reason to feel confident about defending his Cup championship and picking up a third career title. He didn’t win a single race in the regular season, yet here he is with the points lead and a team that has finally found its rhythm.
The No. 5 car has won two of the last three postseason races, finished second in the other, and stretched the lead over Denny Hamlin to 26 points after a dominant performance at Kansas.
Larson said earlier that if they were fast at Kansas, he expected them to be fast at both Las Vegas and Charlotte. The first box is now checked. The race-winning speed that was missing for most of the year has shown up at the perfect time, and suddenly the No. 5 team looks like the group everyone else has to beat.
They can win from the front, they can win in chaos, and they just beat a strong Joe Gibbs Racing car head-to-head at a track that usually favors Toyota.
This is not the script most people expected when The Chase started.
Denny Hamlin was the clear favorite after dominating the regular season. He had the points lead, the consistency, and the best overall package. Now we’re watching another chapter of the same story play out — Hamlin’s championship to lose is starting to slip.
He’s still right there, only 26 points back, and that deficit is far from fatal. But the tone has changed. The No. 11 team is no longer dictating terms.
Hamlin finished third at Kansas, which on paper is a solid day. In reality he was a non-factor when it came to actually competing for the win. Over the last three weeks he’s stacked three straight top-10s, which keeps him firmly in the fight. The problem is that consistency alone doesn’t win championships in this format when other drivers are finding Victory Lane.
Larson is winning. Hamlin is running well. Those are two different things right now.
The good news for the No. 11 side is that time is still on their side and the gap isn’t outrageous. A strong run or two can erase 26 points in a hurry. They need to respond quickly, though, before the deficit grows and the pressure starts doing real damage.
Beyond the top two, the field is already starting to separate. Christopher Bell sits third, 50 points back. Joey Logano is fourth, 67 back. Neither is officially out by any stretch, but both need to start stringing together wins if they want to close that kind of gap. Everyone else is staring at an even steeper climb.
Right now this is shaping up as Larson versus Hamlin. One driver has the momentum and the race-winning speed. The other has the regular-season résumé and enough points to stay dangerous.
Larson is the favorite. Hamlin is not going away quietly. The rest of the field has work to do and not a lot of time to do it.
The next few races will tell us whether Larson’s surge is the real deal or whether Hamlin still has another gear.
For the first time in a while, the championship fight feels like it has a clear leading man — and a very motivated challenger right behind him.
