Strategy and luck propelled the Joe Gibbs Racing young gun to victory lane, but a lackluster winning percentage suggests he lacks the pedigree to survive The Chase grind
NEWTON, Iowa - Ty Gibbs is a winner again.
For the second time this season, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver found Victory Lane, this time in the Iowa Corn 300 powered by Ethanol on Sunday. It’s a solid win and another step forward in what has clearly been a breakout year for the young driver.
Most guys in his position after last season would’ve been looking for a new ride. Gibbs kept his seat at JGR, and he’s making the most of it so far in 2026.
That said, I’m still not completely sold.
It took Gibbs 131 career starts to get his first Cup Series win earlier this year at Bristol. That’s a long time to go winless when you’re driving elite equipment for Joe Gibbs Racing in a Toyota — the best manufacturer in the garage right now.
Sunday’s win at Iowa pushes him to two victories in 146 career starts. Progress? Sure.
But it’s hard to look at that body of work and suddenly crown him a legitimate championship threat.
Even this win came with a bit of an asterisk. Crew chief Tyler Allen made a sharp call to take two tires late and it paid off, allowing Gibbs to take advantage of that Toyota speed. Credit where it’s due — Allen put his driver in position — but it wasn’t like Gibbs dominated the race from start to finish on pure pace alone.
Gibbs currently sits second in the points standings, just 103 behind Denny Hamlin. On paper that looks great. In reality, I can’t get myself to buy him as a true title contender yet.
Winning still matters in this sport, and two wins in 146 starts doesn’t scream championship pedigree to me. You need more than consistency and a couple of timely short track victories when the playoffs roll around.
Here’s the part that really sticks out: it took Gibbs 146 starts to match the same win total Corey Heim reached in just 15 races.
Let that sink in.
Heim is still running part-time and has already shown he can win the big ones. Gibbs has been full-time in top equipment for years and is just now getting to two.
When I look at the real championship threats right now, I see a former champion in Ryan Blaney, running just as well as Gibbs while driving for a Penske Ford program that has largely struggled this season.
I see Denny Hamlin being his usual consistent, race-winning self.
And I still see Tyler Reddick, who hasn’t been at his best lately but still owns a series-leading five wins.
Those are the names that feel more dangerous when the pressure ramps up.
Gibbs is having a good year. No question. He’s running up front more often, the results are better, and he’s showing growth.
Big congratulations on the Iowa win — he earned it. But if you’re asking me right now whether I think he’ll be the one hoisting the trophy at the end of the season, I’ll be shocked if it happens.
The talent is there. The opportunity is there. The equipment is there.
Now he has to prove he can keep stacking wins and perform when it actually counts.
Prove me wrong, Ty.
