Honeycutt Can Play It Safe, But Riggs Has to Win It All

The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship comes down to one race this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where points leader Kaden Honeycutt will try to defend a 20-point lead against Layne Riggs.

Let’s take a deeper look into the stats and make a prediction for who wins the Truck Series Championship.

With a 20-point lead, Honeycutt is sitting pretty comfortably ahead, but Homestead-Miami Speedway is not his best track. He has a 17.0 average finish over 3 races, with just one Top 10 finish coming in the most recent 2025 race. Honeycutt also averages 7.67 stage points here, giving him an average points accumulation of 27.67 points.

Riggs, on the other hand, tends to perform well here, securing a second-place finish in the most recent Truck Series race here in 2025. In his 2 races, Riggs averaged 6.5 stage points and 31.5 points a race. 

While these sample sizes are small, which is typical for the Truck Series, we can see that Riggs averages about 3.5 more points than Honeycutt at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 3.5 points is not enough to reliably expect Riggs to bring the Championship home for Ford and Front Row Motorsports.

Another point in favor of Honeycutt is that he drives for Tricon Garage, which has been dominant over the past two years, in part thanks to rookie phenom Corey Heim. Tricon is a much better truck program than Honeycutt was in previously, and we can expect him to perform better than in his previous races at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Both Riggs and Honeycutt are winners. Riggs has seven race wins this year to Honeycutt’s four on the year. During the Chase, however, Honeycutt has won two races to Riggs’ one. Both drivers and their teams are completely capable of going down to Homestead and winning both the race and the championship. For one of these drivers, that is what must be done.

I believe that Honeycutt has the championship locked up as long as he goes in and puts together a race where he meets his averages. He doesn’t have to win; he just can’t go out Friday night and lose. He has to finish the race, get some stage points, and finish, preferably in the Top 10, to win his first Truck Series Title. 

Realistically, for Riggs to win his first Championship, he needs to go out there and win. He needs to outperform Honeycutt in the stages and at the end of this race. If Riggs can win this race, he will win the whole thing. A Riggs win would give him a base of 55 points, while second place receives a base of 35 points. A 20-point swing. If Riggs wins the race and Honeycutt gets second, the gap is gone and it comes down to stage points. Stage points are crucial for Riggs this week, his entire championship hopes depend on them.

Should Riggs win, and he and Honeycutt tie in stage points, Honeycutt has the tiebreakers to his advantage. Tiebreakers look at the best finishes of each driver during the Chase. Both drivers would be tied at 2 wins apiece, so NASCAR would compare 2nd place finishes, then, if still tied, 3rd place finishes, etc.

If Honeycutt finishes second or third at Homestead, with Riggs winning the race and tying in stage points, Honeycutt takes home the trophy. If Honeycutt finishes 4th or worse and they still tie in points, Riggs gets the Championship. 

For Honeycutt, the goal is simple. Get a lot of stage points and finish the race, preferably as close to the top as possible. He doesn’t need to wreck his car trying to win; he just needs as good a points day as possible.

For Riggs, the plan has to be to dominate. He needs as many stage points as possible, so that should he win and get the points needed to close the 20-point gap, he can still come out on top. If he gets out-stage-pointed by Honeycutt, and Honeycutt doesn’t destroy his car, he doesn’t have much hope at the championship. If Riggs doesn’t win, he needs to finish 20 positions ahead of Honeycutt to have a chance, and I don’t seee that happening.

Personally, my pick for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series is Kaden Honeycutt. I think he has the racing IQ and the truck to bring it home, but never count out someone backed into a corner, needing a win like Layne Riggs.

Who do you think is going to win it all? Leave a comment down below and tell me why I’m right or wrong.