How Realistic are Tyrese Maxey's MVP Chances?

Every Philadelphia 76ers fan has known for a while just how talented Tyrese Maxey is, but he has finally been getting national recognition due to his strong start to the new season. Maxey is averaging a career-high in all three major stat categories with 32.1 points per game, 4.9 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. To go along with that, he has been very efficient with a 45.8% field goal percentage and a career high 44.4% three-point percentage. 

His season to this point has been nothing short of spectacular, and some rumblings about a potential MVP case have caught my ear. Historically, it has been a tough road for short guards to win the award, especially offensive-centric guards like Maxey. It has been done before, however, and today I'll be looking back at similar archetype players who have won the NBA MVP, and comparing their seasons to Tyrese Maxey's. 

I will only be looking at MVP winners who match a specific criteria: primarily a guard, listed at 6'3" or below, as Maxey is 6'2", and have won their MVP award in the 2000 season or above. 

The first MVP winner I'll be looking at is a two-time winner in Steph Curry. Curry won the award in back-to-back seasons in 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. In his first MVP campaign, Curry averaged 23.8 points and 7.7 assists and wowed voters with his efficiency from beyond the arc with a 44.3% three-point percentage. This MVP was largely due to his team's success, in which his Warriors finished with a 67-15 record in the regular season. They would also go on to win the NBA Championship, but that does not factor into the MVP decision. 

Tyrese Maxey actually compares quite nicely with Curry's 2014-2015 MVP. Maxey is currently averaging about 8 more points per game and 0.4 more assists while topping Curry's three point percentage by a mere 0.1%. Of course Maxey would need to keep this up for an entire season as well as needing some help from the 76ers to acheive a good record, but he stacks up well with this MVP. 

The 2015-2016 Curry MVP is a different case, however. Steph put up 30.1 points per game, 6.7 assists, and a blazing 45.4% from three. Statistically, this does not blow Maxey out of the water, but the team success is far from achievable for Tyrese. The Warriors snagged the NBA record for most wins in the regular season with 73. What we learn from looking at Curry's two MVP awards is that Maxey can fit in statistically, but will need help from his team to garner votes. 

Next, we will look at the youngest NBA MVP ever, Derrick Rose. Rose took home the award in 2010-2011 at only 22 years of age. In the season, Rose averaged 25 points, 7.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and shot 44.5% from the field. Statistically, Maxey clears Rose in every statistical category, but team success once again played a major factor.

The Chicago Bulls finished 62-20 that season, as well as being the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Combine that with Rose's young age, crazy athletic feats, and the storyline of being a hometown kid, it became an easy choice for voters. What we can take away from Rose's MVP case is that the MVP is, in part, a storyline award. Maxey will need to get his story out to the NBA fandom to help gain votes. 

Next up is another two-time and back-to-back winner in Steve Nash. Nash won his two MVP awards in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 seasons. Nash averaged a double-double with points and assists in both seasons, with 15.5 and 11.5 in 2004-2005 and 18.8 and 10.5 in 2005-2006. He also wowed with efficiency, posting above a 50% field goal percentage, a 43% three-point percentage, and an 88% free throw percentage in both years. Nash also led the Suns to the top seed in the Western Conference in both seasons to top off his MVP cases. 

Now the primary thing to address here is that NBA basketball was a different game 20 years ago, and Nash's stats looked more impressive back then than they do now. The game has evolved greatly over time, and Steve Nash would most likely not win the MVP or receive a significant amount of votes in 2025 with his past MVP seasons.

With that acknowledgement out of the way, it's clear that Maxey compares well with Nash. While they do have very different styles of play, Maxey matches efficiency from three, crushes Nash in points, and is only slightly behind in assists. Nash's MVP wins once again echo that team success is very important to an MVP case, and if Maxey can find a sliver of team success as the number one option, then he has a real chance at the honor. 

The final MVP to look into is former 76er Allen Iverson in 2000-2001. Iverson led his 76ers team to a 56-26 record and the top seed in the East, reaffirming what we already knew about the importance of team success. Individually, Iverson averaged 31.1 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and a 42% clip from the field.

Again, it is important to acknowledge that the game has evolved and that a 42% field goal percentage would be laughed at for an MVP candidate today. Back in 2001, it was also more rare to have players average 30 points per game, which led to Iverson getting MVP traction. 

Out of all these awards, statistically, Maxey compares the best with 2015-2016 Steph Curry. The differences between the stats are minimal as Maxey leads in points by 2, assists by 1.6, and Curry leads in three point percentage by 1%. Even with the tight comparison, as mentioned above, Curry was helped a lot by the best record in NBA history, which Maxey does not have a chance at. 

After looking back and analyzing these former small guards to win MVP, I can assign Maxey a 5-10% chance to win MVP. Maxey would have to keep up these numbers throughout the year, which is a tough task, as well as lead the 76ers to a good record and playoff seeding for the team success factor. He would also have to outplay some of the other top contenders in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic. 

It's not likely that Tyrese will win NBA MVP. But it is also not impossible. At the end of the day I believe Maxey will receive some votes, maybe even up to 3rd place, but ultimately fall short of the honor.