NBA's New Draft Lottery Reforms Could be Disastrous for Bulls' Rebuild

The NBA revealed its new "anti-tanking" proposal on Tuesday, which hopes to dissuade teams from intentionally losing games in order to gain better draft positioning. This proposal could very well have unintended consequences, though, and the Chicago Bulls may be among those that will be punished the worst.

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the NBA is set to unveil a "3-2-1 lottery" system, which expands the lottery to 16 teams, flattens the odds and penalizes the teams with the three worst records. Under this proposal, the bottom-three teams are placed in the "relegation zone," receive two ping pong balls and can fall to as low as the No. 12 overall pick. The Nos. 4 through 10 teams receive three ping pong balls and could fall as far as the No. 16 pick.

Additionally, the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in the Play-In Tournament receive two ping pong balls, while the losers of the Play-In game between the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds receive one ball apiece.

No team would also be able to win the No. 1 overall pick in back-to-back years or win three consecutive top-five picks.

Lottery odds would be flattened across the board, as visualized in the graph below by Sportico's Lev Akabas.

This proposal comes from the NBA's fundamental inability to understand its own league. Nobody wants to intentionally lose games, but history has shown that building through the draft is the best way to construct a sustainable winner.

One superstar football player must still be surrounded by 21 other starters. One superstar hitter in baseball only accounts for one-ninth of the lineup, and still necessitates a competent pitching staff. One superstar in basketball completely changes the trajectory of a franchise. Just ask the Cavaliers with LeBron James, the Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards or the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama.

And while the NBA publicly shames teams that are "tanking," its playoffs are propped up by teams that became contenders in that exact way.

The defending champion Thunder actively trotted out atrocious lineups and acquired loads of draft capital before surrounding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. The Pistons sat at the bottom of the league for years, which allowed them to draft Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson with lottery selections. San Antonio is already looking like it'll be a threat for years to come after taking Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper with consecutive top-five picks.

Look across the league, and you'll be hard-pressed to find contenders that didn't build this way. Even outliers like the Cavaliers — who traded for Donovan Mitchell — and the Lakers — who signed James — were constructed through a strong foundation of top draft picks before acquiring their respective stars.

Tanking has always been a problem, but it's never been as big a problem as the NBA claims it is. Now, the league's proposal isn't just going to harm the teams it claims are guilty of tanking, but also those that are just... bad.

For better or for worse, the Jerry Reinsdorf-led Bulls have always adamantly opposed the idea of tanking. That's kept Chicago in an ethical standing, for what it's worth, but it's also kept the team in a sort of purgatory during this decade. This new proposal would have actually helped the mediocre Bulls over the past few years by raising the odds of Play-In teams.

But moving forward, this is going to make it impossibly difficult for Chicago to rebuild in the same time those aforementioned contenders did. Barring an All-NBA caliber season from Matas Buzelis, the Bulls are going to be bad next year. They won't be bad because they're intentionally trying to lose, but because they just don't have the talent necessary to compete.

Most of the NBA's current bottom-feeders have reason to try to win next season. The Jazz and the Wizards have made trades that signify they're ready to end their rebuilds. The Pacers will return point guard Tyrese Haliburton, the Nets have a massive young core and both the Pelicans and Grizzlies will be hoping for their top players to experience better health. Both the Bucks and Mavericks have an incentive to win as well, whether that be to appease their stars or because they don't control their own draft pick.

That leaves the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls at the bottom of the pile, both having decided to rebuild when it was already too late. The two will almost certainly be among the league's worst next year, right as the NBA begins to make it harder for the worst to acquire top, young talent in the draft.

As bleak as things have seemed for the Bulls over the past six months, the team's future is still promising. Buzelis and Josh Giddey are young, while Leonard Miller, Rob Dillingham and Noa Essengue are intriguing projects under the age of 23.

But when Chicago goes 22-60 next year and ends up with the No. 12 overall pick, will that really help the Bulls return to relevancy quicker? Or will it ensure the team remains untalented and unable to catch up to its colleagues?

The Bulls' front office decided to rebuild too late in the game. Now, their efforts to rebuild through the draft will be stunted with worsened odds, while any attempt to sign star talent in free agency will stay impossible because of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The NBA aimed to punish the worst offenders of tanking, and will instead end up punching down to keep the bad teams bad. Chicago is destined to get caught in the crossfire.