• Powered by Roundtable
    Kevin Lu
    Dec 16, 2025, 13:30
    Updated at: Dec 16, 2025, 15:35

    The Bulls' sophomore progresses statistically, but offensive stagnation and defensive focus stall his true ascendance. Is this growth sustainable?

    Matas Buzelis had brought some extra sauces this season, which corresponded to the ambitions he presented on media day. However, they're not convincing enough to validate his "leap."

    Against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, the Chicago Bulls, fresh off ending their seven-game losing streak, weren't able to escape a fourth-quarter collapse and encountered another frustrating setback at the United Center. Buzelis, a regular starter this season who played nearly 24 minutes that night, had a season-low five shot attempts, converting three for just nine points. The offensive inactivity seemed alarming.

    With the first quarter of the season going through, is the Bulls' sophomore really surging? 

    The basic improvement is authentic. As a rookie last year with 31 starts, Buzelis averaged 8.6 points and 3.5 rebounds. Now starting all 25 games with increased minutes (28.2 per game), Buzelis has elevated his production, scoring 13.6 points and grabbing 5.5 boards. Defensively, he shouldered more responsibility as promised, raising his average blocks from 0.9 last year to 1.4. Though he fouled out twice thus far and recorded at least four fouls in seven games, Matas gradually found a leeway to balance his ascending aggressiveness and discipline.

    An elite player can showcase intact efficiency off the bench, magnifying their potential. But when such a bench contributor transitions to starting, it can disrupt how the player naturally operates. For Buzelis, this is the growing pain of shifting from a rotational rookie to a starter with real obligations.

    Dec 1, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis (14) drives against Orlando Magic center Goga Bitadze (35) during the second half at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

    It's reasonable to believe Buzelis's defensive responsibilities have slightly disrupted his offensive flow, but what's more concerning is his lack of scoring autonomy. Per NBA tracking data, Buzelis takes 51% of his shots with zero dribbles, including 35.7% from deep. Of his 263 overall shots, 111 have come from three-point range, with 128 of the remainder coming at the rim within five feet. Not saying Buzelis has to pick up his midrange preference that Billy Donovan dislikes. Still, he might need to expand his arsenal to create shots consistently, rather than relying solely on three-point shooting and off-ball rim runs.

    An increased turnover rate (1.9) is understandable, given his larger role as a scoring threat, but the 6-foot-8 forward hasn't shown much confidence facing the rim with the ball. Some sloppy plays waved off possessions with his handle, or his bamboo-pole frame became fragile going downhill under pressure. He could find rhythm despite numerous mistakes, but development remains in doubt, as he mostly lines up with three guards, forcing him to stand on the wing watching either Coby White or Josh Giddey drive, or temporarily finding himself as a cutter toward the rim.

    Per Cleaning the Glass, Buzelis's efficiency hasn't positively impacted the Bulls, unfortunately, despite more presence on the hardwood. With an increased 18.9% usage rate, the Bulls, however, score 3.9 points fewer per 100 possessions with Buzelis on the court.

    Many Bulls games this season have featured the team being outscored from beyond the arc while struggling to rally. Buzelis has been part of that problem. Despite taking more attempts, he's shooting an unconvincing 32.4% from deep compared to 36.1% last season. His catch-and-shoot and pull-up percentages have both plummeted below 34%.

    Considering the 10-15 Bulls are entirely struggling with their identity and a grotesque roster structure, it's unfair to exaggerate Buzelis' weakness or even scapegoat him for the team's recent decline. In those heavy minutes, he's faced tougher competition, closed games and shouldered larger defensive responsibility — higher-leverage situations that justify his sophomore slumps by far.

    Is he leaping? Not yet. The metrics suggest he's struggling with increased responsibility, and his offensive limitations are exposed at the starting level. The potential is there. The athleticism, defensive instincts and flashes of scoring prowess remain visible. But until Buzelis breaks through, his breakthrough will remain incomplete. Time will tell if anything revolutionary happens to him.