The Numbers Behind the Struggles of Bulls Forward Matas Buzelis

Chicago Bulls faithful expect big things from Matas Buzelis as he enters his third year of NBA experience. He was a member of the 2024-25 All-Rookie team and averaged 16.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.5 BPG, and shot 34.9% on 6.4 attempts per game from 3-point range. 

Buzelis clearly had many facets of his game to work on, but the starting archetype of an excellent shot-blocker--Buzelis has averaged 1.2 BPG over 163 career games--with solid 3-point shooting ability is an extremely valuable one. 

So what has changed since last season? Quite a lot, it turns out, as roster turnover, a coaching change, and a brand-new front office all took place over the offseason. 

The biggest change, of course, is No. 4 overall pick Caleb Wilson joining the lineup. Wilson is a high-usage wing who would clearly take shots and areas of the floor that Buzelis may use. But this isn't to say Wilson is the reason Buzelis is struggling. Theoretically speaking, an offensive threat of Wilson's caliber should open up more opportunities for Buzelis to attack.

So what is happening? Buzelis is simply not making shots, but he also isn't attacking as much as he could be from areas where he should have an advantage. 

With Wilson (25.9% per Cleaning The Glass) carrying such a large share of the Bulls offense and taking shots from (literally) all over the floor, Buzelis simply needs to fill in the gaps.

This means spacing the floor effectively for Wilson's drives and being ready to get downhill quickly when receiving a pass. 

Buzelis is taking fewer 3-pointers than last season--5.0 attempts per game from 3-point range this season compared to 6.4 attempts per game last year--and getting to the rim less. On top of all this, he is taking more midrange FGAs. 

The midrange FGAs became a big sticking point in discussions around Buzelis' potential post-Billy Donovan stepping down as head coach of the Bulls. This was mostly due to Donovan preferring Buzelis focus on 3-pointers and getting to the rim.

The heavy analytics-focused approach could obviously feel restrictive to players at times, but things don't seem extremely different under current Bulls head coach Tiago Splitter. This alone makes me believe this tough, early stretch is in no way indicative of how Buzelis' full 2026-27 regular season will go. 

At the time of this writing, Buzelis is taking 22% of his FGAs from the midrange area, up a full 10% from last season (per Cleaning The Glass). He is shooting an ice-cold 15% on midrange shots, after shooting no worse than 41% on midrange FGAs the past two seasons. 

Simplifying the shot diet will aid Buzelis' offense, but his defense can only be improved by effort and aggression.

Buzelis has never been a big steals generator, but the high-volume blocked shots are well documented. He has continued to act as a solid rim deterrent, although he is averaging less than a block per game as of now. While the low BPG figure is concerning, the bigger issue is the fact that the Bulls' defense is struggling mightily when Buzelis is on the floor.

A big part of the Bulls' defensive struggles has been opponents slaughtering them on the offensive glass. With Chicago unable to end possessions on defense consistently, they give up too many second chance points. To be precise, the Bulls give up 17 PPG in second chance points, 17th in the league.

This is a group issue to be clear, but with Wilson not being a dominant rebounder right out of the gate, even more will be needed from Buzelis on the defensive glass.

A heavier focus on defensive rebounding naturally flows into solving Buzelis' offensive woes, as it could result in more transition looks where he can get all the way to the rim. We're only six games into the year, so there is plenty of time for Buzelis to turn things around. Any chances of the Bulls crashing the Play-In party depend on it.