The frozen Kawhi Leonard trade leaves Los Angeles staring at two very different seasons, so an honest projection has to cover both of them.
Projecting the Los Angeles Clippers right now means projecting two different teams at once, because nobody knows which roster will walk into training camp.
The front office agreed to move on from its franchise player, an open league investigation stopped the paperwork, and everything has been stuck ever since.
That freeze makes the Clippers the hardest team in the league to forecast, but both versions of this roster have a real shape to them.
The floor is lower than most fans want to admit, and the ceiling is higher than last season's finish suggests.
The Trade That Will Not Move
According to ESPN, the Clippers and Raptors agreed on June 30 to swap Leonard for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two unprotected first round picks, a pick swap and two second rounders, and the deal stopped cold behind the NBA's investigation into whether the team circumvented the salary cap through Leonard's endorsement deal with the bankrupt Aspiration company.
While it all sits frozen, Leonard remains a Clipper and Ingram and Dick remain in Toronto.
Commissioner Adam Silver insists the league never paused anything, saying in July, "They chose not to live with that uncertainty, but that was well-known before the trade was proposed."
ESPN's Shams Charania reported last month that a resolution was still weeks away, and Baxter Holmes later suggested the fight could drag into 2027 if the sides argue over the findings.
The Floor Is Lower Than Fans Admit
Los Angeles fell 15 games under .500 early last season, rallied back to 42-40, and finished only ninth in the Western Conference.
That roster has already been stripped down, because James Harden went to Cleveland in a February trade that brought back Darius Garland and a second round pick, while John Collins left for Detroit, Bradley Beal opted out, and the team declined its options on Nicolas Batum and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
If the case drags the way Holmes floated, Leonard would open the year on a team that already agreed to trade him, which is not a healthy setup.
My floor is 36 wins and a trip back to the lottery, because a frozen star, a thinner bench and a brutal conference can bury a team fast.
The Ceiling Is Real in Both Versions
The ceiling case works either way.
If the deal dies and Leonard stays, coach Tyronn Lue keeps a forward who just averaged a career-high 27.9 points across 65 games and made the All-NBA Second Team, next to Garland, who averaged 19.9 points in 19 games after the trade.
If the deal closes, Ingram and Dick arrive, and one early projected depth chart already has Garland and rookie Keaton Wagler, the No. 5 pick out of Illinois, starting around Ingram with Brook Lopez at center.
Either version gets a lift from Rui Hachimura, who arrived on a two-year, $28 million deal and looks set for a bigger role than he had across town.
My ceiling is 49 wins and a top six seed, and my honest prediction lands in the middle, a mid 40s win total and another play-in fight, with everything riding on how fast the league closes its case.
