The Memphis Grizzlies could improve in 2026-27 while still maximizing their 2027 lottery position under the NBA's new draft system.
The Memphis Grizzlies have an intriguing 2026-27 season ahead. What's the best-case scenario for this team?
It's not necessarily an easy question to answer. The Grizzlies are juggling competing interests. They don't want to expose their talented young players to the "tanking" process, but they also want to secure a lottery pick in the 2027 NBA Draft.
So what should they be aiming to accomplish this season?
Grizzlies Walking a Fine Line
The NBA's new lottery odds impact the Grizzlies more than most teams. Memphis owner Robert Pera cast the lone vote against the change when the Board of Governors approved it 29-1 in May. Here's a quick review in case you missed how it works.
The league has instituted a "3-2-1" system, beginning with the 2027 draft. The league's three worst teams are now "draft relegated" and have lesser odds (5.4%) of landing the No. 1 pick than the seven teams directly above them (8.1%). The four teams that meet in the 9-vs-10 play-in games share that same 5.4%, while the losers of the 7-vs-8 games get 2.7%.
The same gap shows up further down the board. A team in the 8.1% group has a 24% chance at a top-three pick, compared with 16% for a 9 or 10 seed.
For the first time, finishing in the bottom three is a step down rather than the goal. The Grizzlies are no exception. The only question is whether they should prefer to make a play-in run, or finish somewhere between the fourth- and 10th-worst record in the NBA.
So which is it?
Grizzlies Should Prioritize Future
The best-case scenario has Memphis landing in that fourth-to-10th range in 2026-27, out of the bottom three and out of the play-in.
That's not to say the play-in would be a disaster. It would be an excellent outcome. A play-in bid would mean that the Grizzlies are ahead of schedule. If they can get that far, it likely means forward Cameron Boozer has exceeded his lofty expectations as the No. 3 overall pick.
Still, it's possible for Boozer to do just that, and for Memphis to still fall short of play-in territory. The Grizzlies finished 25-57 last season, so there's ground to make up. That's part of why they should hope to add another high lottery pick to their young core.
To be more specific, the best-case scenario might see Memphis on track for play-in contention leading up to the deadline, only for the front office to make a major trade that flips veterans for assets. Jerami Grant, who has two years and $70.6 million left on his contract, is the obvious candidate. A move like that would tell us that while the Grizzlies might be ready to surpass expectations, the organization understands that it should maximize its lottery odds.
That would make Memphis one of the most intriguing teams in the NBA beyond 2026-27.
