The Grizzlies may hover around the Western Conference play-in race in 2026-27, an outcome that could balance development with favorable lottery positioning.
There has been speculation about how competitive the Memphis Grizzlies will be in 2026-27. The team's most realistic outcome has them on the cusp of the play-in tournament.
That's not what every Grizzlies fan will want to hear. They'd prefer to view the Grizzlies as a playoff lock. That's fair, but there's some benefit in being realistic as well.
Besides, I already wrote that landing just outside the play-in (anywhere between the 4th and 10th worst record in the NBA) would be the team's best-case scenario. It would give the Grizzlies access to the highest possible lottery odds (8.1% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, 39.0% chance of landing top five, 73.0% chance of landing top 10), and it would mean that they were competitive.
The fact that this outcome is so realistic is optimal for the organization.
Grizzlies' Best-Case Scenario Looks Realistic
Let's take a look at where the Memphis Grizzlies stand in the Western Conference.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs stand above the competition. It would take a miracle for the Grizzlies to outplay the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, or Minnesota Timberwolves. The Utah Jazz are also likely to outplay them. Barring injuries, the eighth seed is Memphis' absolute ceiling.
Yet, it's more likely that the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Dallas Mavericks will outplay Memphis as well. The Grizzlies' standing among the remaining teams is where the intrigue really begins.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings have made minimal changes after disappointing 2025-26 seasons. The Los Angeles Clippers are in crisis after a summer marred by controversy. The Grizzlies project as a better team than any of those three.
This is not an exact science, but this puts the team's realistic floor at 10th in the West. There's a reasonable chance that they'll land as high as eighth and as low as 11th. So, they're right around the new lottery sweet spot.
But Grizzlies fans should prioritize the process over the results.
Grizzlies Have an Exciting Season Ahead
Ultimately, what matters most is how the Grizzlies look while they're getting to their end-of-season record.
How much potential does Cameron Boozer flash? Can Karim Lopez surprise people? Can Zach Edey stay healthy? How does Isaiah Stewart fit the squad?
The Grizzlies' season will be defined by how many of those questions have positive answers. Everything else is secondary. Still, the most realistic outcome for them in 2026-27 has Memphis hovering around the play-in, but probably falling short of participating in it.
And that's perfect.
