Why the Grizzlies' 6-1 Start Might Be More Than a Fluke

The Memphis Grizzlies are 6-1. Is this team headed for the postseason?

Many will rush to say that’s an overreaction. They won’t be entirely wrong. Four of the Grizzlies’ six wins came against the Jazz and Kings, who are a combined 2-12. Their first loss came Monday, when the New Orleans Pelicans beat them 135-134 in overtime to end a 6-0 start that matched the best in franchise history.

Still, to the eye, it’s hard to deny that this looks like a playoff team. The other two wins came against the Warriors and Trail Blazers, who are a combined 10-4, and Memphis sits second in the Western Conference behind the 7-1 Houston Rockets.

Memphis’ plus-12.7 Net Rating places them second in the NBA at the moment. That’s basically meaningless in a seven-game sample size, but it’s the way that they’ve gotten the points that’s worth noting. The Grizzlies lead the league at 123.0 points per game, and their defensive rating ranks fifth.

Firstly, they’re averaging 49.4 rebounds per game. Cameron Boozer is pulling down 10.3 per game, and Cedric Coward is at 8.7 from the wing. Maintaining that feels sustainable. The Grizzlies have a massive team capable of dominating the boards.

More broadly, the team’s roster construction simply makes sense. Running the offense through a playmaking forward like Boozer is perfect when you have a combo guard like Ty Jerome.

The latter has been sensational this year. Jerome is averaging 28.2 points and 5.5 assists while shooting 50.4% from the field and 42.1% from three-point range in six games. He opened the season with 45 points against Utah, was named Western Conference Player of the Week, and scored 40 in Monday’s loss. Obviously, those numbers might not hold, but an All-Star season is absolutely on the table.

It’s been an up-and-down start for Boozer. He struggled in his debut, but went for an impressive 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists against the Warriors two days later. Through seven games, he’s averaging 17.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. His playmaking instincts have been consistent throughout.

Otherwise, those two and Zach Edey are surrounded by a deep cast of quality, role-playing wings. If they continue to click, and Memphis continues to bully opponents on the boards, this team could surprise people this year.

On the other hand...

It doesn’t ultimately matter how many games the Grizzlies win this year.

This is still a rebuilding club. Boozer will inevitably struggle as a rookie. An impressive seven-game start does not make for an inevitable playoff run.

This is the time of year for optimism. Everyone wants to think their team can exceed expectations. Then, before you know it, a mid-January losing streak is pushing you out of the playoff race.

So no, this isn’t (strictly) an overreaction to seven games. It’s just something to think about. Memphis has certifiable strengths relative to their competition, and a roster that works on paper:

But we’ll see how it looks when they’re truly challenged.