Hawks navigate play-in chase while eyeing Pelicans' draft pick. Plus, Kuminga's fit and Jalen Johnson's star potential.
The All-Star break provided a pause in the schedule, but for the Atlanta Hawks, the most consequential stretch of the season is just beginning.
On the latest episode of the Hawks Roundtable Podcast, Grant Afseth and TJ French examined Atlanta’s 26-30 record, its hold on the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference, and the dual-track reality facing the franchise: chase the play-in now while monitoring lottery odds tied to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans’ 15-41 record places them among the league’s bottom three teams, giving that draft slot a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 52.1% probability of landing in the top four — a significant outcome for Atlanta, which controls the selection. French described the unusual dynamic of rooting for losses elsewhere while trying to stack wins at home.
“It’s funny to think that the Hawks’ future is now in someone else’s hands because they want the Pelicans to keep losing, but the Pelicans are going to be playing all these other teams that also want to lose, so something’s going to have to give,” French said.
At the same time, the Hawks cannot afford to lose ground in the standings. Atlanta opens the post-break stretch on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers before hosting the Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets and a two-game set with the Washington Wizards`. French stressed the importance of capitalizing on that early run.
“I think you have to win two out of those first three,” he said. “You’ve got to win games you’re supposed to win. They’re on the ropes being in that 10 seed.”
The discussion also revisited Atlanta’s three straight losses entering the break, including two to the surging Charlotte Hornets. Afseth noted that Charlotte’s recent form has tightened the lower half of the East, while injuries around the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks could further reshape the play-in race.
On an individual level, Jalen Johnson’ All-Star Weekend appearance became a focal point. French described it as a moment for Johnson to showcase his athleticism and playmaking on a national stage, reinforcing his role as the franchise’s centerpiece heading into the stretch run.
The hosts also evaluated how Jonathan Kuminga could fit alongside Johnson once healthy. Afseth referenced Quin Snyder’s comments about pairing versatile forwards who can attack the rim and facilitate, emphasizing that any long-term decision will hinge on whether Kuminga’s skill set eases Johnson’s burden as a primary creator. The ability to generate paint pressure when Johnson rests — and to function as a secondary advantage creator — was framed as a potential swing factor.
Developmental priorities remain central. Dyson Daniels’ 3-point shooting, which has dipped to 13.3% this season, drew particular attention. Afseth argued that continued attempts and confidence could be more important than short-term percentages, given Daniels’ defensive value and his history as a 30%-plus shooter in previous seasons.
Meanwhile, Nickeil Alexander-Walker continues to carry a significant offensive workload, averaging 20.1 points per game despite a recent dip in efficiency. French acknowledged that Atlanta may have to live with the shot volume given the current roster structure and the team’s need for scoring punch alongside Johnson.
Frontcourt consistency from the supporting cast and clearer role definition across the rotation were also identified as key evaluation points over the final 26 games. With limited consecutive road trips and a cluster of home matchups ahead, the schedule offers an opportunity to stabilize.
The episode closed with reflections on the USA vs. World All-Star format and potential tweaks for future weekends, but the central theme remained unchanged: Atlanta’s path forward is layered. The Hawks are fighting to protect their place in the play-in while quietly tracking a lottery scenario that could reshape the franchise’s future.
In the final two months, both timelines matter.