It's not fun to think about, but there's a clear worst-case scenario for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27.

Let's establish a caveat: A season-ending injury to Jalen Johnson isn't on the table here. The global economy crashing and cancelling the NBA season doesn't count. We are operating within reason.

What's the worst possible fate for the Hawks this year?

Spoiler: The Hawks' worst-case scenario is going to boil down to their playoff outcome.

That's not to say the regular season doesn't matter. It does. The Hawks need to maximize their postseason seeding. The better their regular season finish, the more games they'll get to play at home.

So, they need the regular season to go well. Jalen Johnson needs to maintain his 2025-26 level at a minimum, and the rest of the Hawks need to play as well as possible. That all matters:

But when the playoffs come, it all becomes somewhat moot.

There are lofty expectations around the Hawks this year. That'll happen when your 76.9% Win Percentage is the third-highest in the league after the All-Star break.

Ideally, they'll make at least a Conference Finals run. That would qualify as a success by any measure. This Hawks team is still young. A Finals-or-bust mentality would not befit this roster.

By that logic, even a second-round exit should be permissible, if a touch disappointing. It would depend on how it looked - who their opponents were, how badly they were beaten, etc. - but in general, winning a playoff series should be the minimum standard in 2026-27.

So, by process of elimination, losing a playoff series would be the worst-case scenario.

That would make the second consecutive year that the Hawks lost in the first round. Granted, they lost to the eventual NBA championship-winning New York Knicks last year, but that won't feel so significant if they're knocked out in the opening round again.

What do they do if that happens?

They should cross that bridge when they come to it.

A full-scale rebuild would be out of the question. The Hawks would still be young. Sweeping changes would be premature.

That said, tinkering would be necessary. Perhaps non-shooting wing Dyson Daniels could be moved for a better fit next to Johnson. One of those heavily-rumored trades to put a superstar scorer next to Johnson could be more palatable as well.

If the Hawks want to avoid difficult decisions, they need to win a playoff series this year and avoid their worst-case scenario.