It all comes down to this. The Charlotte Hornets need to defeat the Orlando Magic on Friday night in order to secure their first playoff berth in a decade.
The Charlotte Hornets have a chance to extend their magical season tonight, by punching their ticket to the NBA Playoffs.
They head into Central Florida to take on the Orlando Magic, a team that has struggled down the stretch.
Orlando went head-to-head with the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night in a mostly close battle, until Philly pulled away late with a 109-97 win.
Meanwhile, the Hornets pulled out a nailbiter victory in overtime against the Miami Heat.
Based on the head-to-head matchups, Charlotte is well-positioned to pull out a win against the Magic.
In the four times both teams have played this season, the Hornets went 3-1 and the only game they lost was early in the season. To start the season, Charlotte struggled mightily, entering the calendar year of 2026 with an 11-22 record.
Since then, the Hornets have been the NBA’s hottest team, going 33-14 to close out the season, and putting themselves in the conversation for playoff teams.
Not only that, in the following three games, Charlotte pulled out wins by an average margin of 20.3 points.
In those battles, Charlotte dominated from beyond the 3-point line (45.7% to Orlando’s 36.2%) and overwhelmed the boards, where the Hornets averaged 10 more rebounds per game than the Magic.
However, the numbers tell us that this is a much closer matchup than the head-to-head battles suggest.
Orlando may not have the volume and consistency from 3 like Charlotte does, but it does a wonderful job on the offensive boards. The Magic also have hefty big men in Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter Jr.
The deciding factor will be whether Paolo Banchero decides to show up for this game.
Banchero, who has had some mild success in his limited postseason experience, was deemed ineffective on Wednesday in Philadelphia, where he shot 7-22 from the field and went 0-5 from 3.
The Hornets will be a deterrent on the floor, especially down low.
While they play small ball with Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabate in the front court, they’re an active group, with their athleticism and bounce causing significant headaches for opposing big men.
Diabate is especially someone who will be an X-Factor. The problem is, he was noticeably shaken up late in the game against Miami.
Should he play though, expect him to be active. But if he's not, rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner has shown this season that no light is too bright for him to play under.
There will be a lot of 3-pointers taken from the Hornets. They currently attempt 3s at a top-2 rate, only behind Golden State.
Given how volatile 3-pointers can be, his ability to grab offensive rebounds will be the biggest deciding factor for tonight’s game.
Diabate is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, averaging 3.8 per game, which is fourth in the league. Kalkbrenner is 20th, averaging 2.4.
One other factor to point out is if Kon Knueppel struggles again tonight. Knueppel, who is the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year and led the league in 3-pointers made, didn’t hit a 3-pointer all game against Miami.
It’ll be critical for Charlotte to get its star player going early on.
If Orlando struggles to neutralize Diabate on the glass, it may end up being a long night for the Magic.
For the Hornets, it’s simple. Do what has worked in the past. Bring the juice, dominate the offensive glass, and let Knueppel find his shot early.
If they do that, we may be seeing playoff basketball in the Queen City for the first time in 10 years.
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