Fueled by the return of Jaren Jackson Jr. and a dynamic young core, Utah is primed to shed its lottery status for a postseason play-in push.
The Utah Jazz don't have to become a contender overnight, they just have to become relevant again.
ESPN believes they're ready to do exactly that, projecting Utah to finish 34-48 next season and claim the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference — good enough for the final spot in the play-in tournament.
That's already a pretty significant jump for a team coming off a 22-60 season.
It also might be underselling the Jazz.
Let's go four wins higher.
My prediction: 38-44, No. 9 in the Western Conference.
No, that doesn't mean Utah's rebuild is suddenly finished. Darryn Peterson hasn't played an NBA regular-season game yet. Ace Bailey is entering only his second season, and this is still a roster with plenty of development left.
But 34 wins feels a little too cautious for what Utah has assembled.
Peterson, the No. 2 pick in June's draft, joins a core featuring Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Bailey and Jaren Jackson Jr. ESPN pointed to that group while arguing the Jazz "finally appear primed to compete."
That's the part we agree on.
Markkanen averaged 26.7 points last season, while George took another significant step at 23.6 points and 6.1 assists per game. Bailey added 13.8 points and 4.2 rebounds as a rookie.
Then there's Jackson.
Utah acquired the former Defensive Player of the Year from Memphis in February, but barely got to see what he could add. Jackson appeared in just three games for the Jazz before undergoing surgery to remove a growth in his left knee and missing the remainder of the season.
Having Jackson back gives Utah a proven two-way piece it essentially didn't have for the final two months of last season.
And Utah doesn't need to start chasing the top of the West for 38 wins to make sense.
ESPN has Golden State only one game ahead of the Jazz at 35-47, with Phoenix at 42-40 and Portland at 43-39.
That's where four extra wins start to feel pretty reasonable.
Peterson will make rookie mistakes. Bailey still has plenty to develop, and expecting every young piece to take a leap at once would be asking for trouble.
But the Jazz finally have enough talent that expectations should change with the roster.
ESPN has already moved Utah into the postseason conversation.
We're just moving them one spot higher.
38-44. No. 9 in the West.
Not proof that the rebuild is over … but a pretty good sign it's finally going somewhere.
