Voters may crown Wembanyama, but ignoring a former winner at +7500 is a gamble. If Jackson stays healthy and anchors Utah’s revival, these lopsided odds won't last.
Utah Jazz big man Jaren Jackson Jr. owns the ninth-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year.
FanDuel Sportsbook also believes he has approximately a 1.3% chance of actually doing it.
Those two facts don't feel particularly compatible.
Jackson is listed at +7500 to reclaim the award in 2026-27, placing him inside the top 10 but considerably behind reigning winner Victor Wembanyama, whose -340 odds have effectively transformed the preseason market into a race for second place.
That gap says more about the circumstances surrounding Jackson than his actual defensive ability.
Defensive Player of the Year isn't awarded in isolation. Team success matters, and no winner in the history of the award has played for a team that missed the postseason, according to Covers.
Utah isn't guaranteed to clear that threshold.
The Jazz posted a 122.3 defensive rating last season, Jackson appeared in only three games for the franchise and the team remains largely dependent on young players making immediate progress. His offseason recovery from knee surgery creates another layer of uncertainty.
FanDuel isn't merely asking whether Jackson can remain one of the NBA's best defenders.
It's asking whether he can stay healthy, help transform Utah's defense, push the Jazz into postseason contention and outperform a generational favorite in San Antonio.
When framed that way ... +7500 makes more sense.
It may still be too low.
Long-shot award candidates typically require voters to reconsider who they are. Jackson doesn't have that problem. He already owns a Defensive Player of the Year trophy, two block titles and multiple All-Defensive selections.
His path requires restoration rather than reinvention.
Utah could also provide one of the clearest narratives of any candidate outside Wembanyama. If Jackson returns to form and the Jazz climb from the bottom of the NBA's defensive rankings into postseason contention, determining who deserves the credit won't require much investigation.
That's what makes his price interesting.
Jackson doesn't need to enter the season as Wembanyama's most obvious challenger. He needs to remain healthy while Utah proves significantly more competitive than sportsbooks currently expect.
If both happen, +7500 won't survive for long.
The odds reflect how many variables must align, but they may underestimate how quickly the perception of Jackson's candidacy could change. A strong opening month from him and an unexpectedly competent Jazz defense would turn a theoretical argument into one of the season's most obvious storylines.
Wembanyama deserves to be the overwhelming favorite.
Jackson also deserves better than a number suggesting his previous dominance, established reputation and potential influence on Utah collectively amount to little more than a 1.3% possibility.
Ninth on the board feels fair.
+7500 feels dismissive.
