The Lakers’ retooled roster gives Luka Dončić a deeper supporting cast, but health will determine how far L.A. advances in the playoffs.
The Los Angeles Lakers will enter the 2026-27 season with a dramatically different roster and legitimate expectations of finishing among the Western Conference’s top five teams.
LeBron James, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Jaxson Hayes and Luke Kennard are gone.
The Lakers retained Austin Reaves and rebuilt around him and Luka Dončić by acquiring Walker Kessler and adding Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Kevon Looney, Jaden Hardy, Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams.
L.A. is younger and better equipped to complement Dončić.
The primary concern is health, particularly after Dončić missed the entire 2026 postseason, Reaves rushed back from an oblique injury in the playoffs and Kessler appeared in only five games last season.
Here are the Lakers’ potential playoff outcomes, ranked from least to most likely.
Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guardLukaDoncic(77) walks across the court during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images5. Missing the playoffs
It would take a disastrous combination of injuries and chemistry problems for the Lakers to miss the postseason entirely.
The Western Conference remains unforgiving, and L.A. must integrate a roster that returns only 42% of last season’s regular-season minutes, according to NBA.com. Still, a team led by Dončić and Reaves should possess enough offense to remain above the conference’s bottom tier.
4. Reaching the NBA Finals
Dončić has already proven he can lead a team through the West, taking Dallas to the 2024 NBA Finals. Kessler’s rim protection and the Lakers’ improved depth make another run conceivable.
Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guardLukaDoncic(77) passes as Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) defends during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn ImagesHowever, L.A. does not yet have enough continuity to be considered a favorite over the West’s established contenders like the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
But maybe that can change with a midseason trade that completely turns things around.
3. Losing in the first round
A first-round exit is realistic if the Lakers finish fourth or fifth and draw another talented team in a competitive opening series.
Mar 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić (77) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers guard Keon Ellis (14) in the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn ImagesDončić and Reaves could carry a heavy offensive burden, while questions remain about who closes games at forward. Kessler’s health will also be vital because the defense is built around his ability to protect the rim and anchor the entire unit.
2. Reaching the Western Conference finals
This outcome becomes realistic if Dončić produces another MVP-caliber season, Reaves maintains his career-best form and Kessler stays available.
Grimes and Thybulle give coach JJ Redick perimeter defenders, while Sexton can provide scoring off the bench. Mamukelashvili also offers frontcourt shooting that should create additional space for Dončić and allow the team to play the five in small-ball scenarios.
May 5, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers head coachJJRedickwatches his team play against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second half during game one of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images1. Reaching the second round
The Lakers’ most likely outcome is another trip to the Western Conference semifinals.
A healthy L.A. team should finish top four and enter the playoffs with home-court advantage or a manageable first-round matchup.
Apr 18, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers head coachJJRedickduring game one of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesDončić remains one of basketball’s premier postseason performers, and the roster surrounding him now has more shooting, athleticism and lineup flexibility to fit him.
The Lakers may not be championship favorites, but they should be firmly in the second tier of Western Conference contenders. Anything short of winning a playoff series would be disappointing if their core remains healthy.
