The Mavericks enter the 2026-27 season with modest expectations, giving Dusty May a clear path to Coach of the Year if Dallas makes the kind of leap few expect.
Dusty May arrives in Dallas as one of the most surprising hires of the NBA's coaching cycle and the oddsmakers are treating his first season with cautious optimism.
DraftKings has May at +1500 to win Coach of the Year, the seventh-best odds on the board, behind Darko Rajakovic (+800), Will Hardy (+1000), Nick Nurse (+1000), Erik Spoelstra (+1200), Chris Finch (+1200) and Micah Nori (+1400).
Those are long odds, but they are not dismissive. They also line up with a growing sense that the Mavericks are a sleeper team this season. The question is what needs to happen for May to pull off the upset and become one of the few coaches to jump straight from the college ranks and win the NBA's top coaching honor.
The history of the award offers a clear template. Coach of the Year often rewards newcomers whose teams dramatically exceed expectations, and the best example is Doc Rivers.
In 1999-2000, Rivers won Coach of the Year in his first season leading the Orlando Magic, a team that had traded away most of its talent during a rebuild and was projected to be one of the league's worst. Instead, Rivers led Orlando to a 41-41 finish with a roster that started four undrafted players, keeping the Magic in playoff contention until the final week.
He remains the only coach in NBA history to win the award without making the playoffs, as voters rewarded how far he took a team few expected to contend.
That is the lane available to May. The Mavericks won 26 games last season and expectations around the league remain modest, with Vegas setting their win total at 35.5. If Dallas blows past that number, the case for May becomes much stronger. A first-year NBA coach taking a team projected to finish near the bottom of the West and pushing it into the play-in or playoff picture fits the type of season Coach of the Year voters reward.
The first requirement is winning at a level few expect. All but one of the last 20 Coach of the Year winners led their team to at least a 50-win pace, which is a tall order for this roster. May does not need to reach 50 wins given Dallas' low starting point, but the Mavericks need to make a genuine leap. A 42-to-45-win season would put Dallas among the league's biggest surprises and give May a strong case.
The second key is health and that starts with Kyrie Irving. If Irving returns from his ACL injury in strong form and Cooper Flagg takes the expected step in his second season, May will have enough talent to outperform expectations. Voters also tend to give coaches more credit when results exceed the talent level on paper. Winning through injuries or while integrating a young, retooled roster would strengthen May's case.
Third, May needs to prove the college-to-NBA transition works immediately. There is skepticism around coaches making the jump and a Coach of the Year campaign would give May a way to answer those questions quickly. He arrives in Dallas after leading Michigan to a national championship and translating that success to the NBA in his first season would give voters another reason to consider him.
The obstacles are there in a loaded Western Conference; Coach of the Year also remains one of the NBA's most subjective awards. There is no statistical threshold that guarantees a win. The award comes down to a media vote influenced by results, expectations and the story surrounding a team.
