Projections reveal a stark drop for the Mavericks, hinting at a challenging 26-win finish after significant roster shifts.
As the 2025-26 NBA season approaches its final stretch, analysts around the league are updating their end-of-season projections — and the outlook for the Dallas Mavericks is far from what fans have grown accustomed to in recent years.
In a recent article by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes, he makes a record prediction for every NBA team now that All-Star Weekend has come and gone. And for the Mavericks, he thinks that they will finish the year with a less-than-stellar 26-56 record.
"The Mavs have the point differential of a team that should be expected to finish with a win total in the low 30s, but part of that owes to a solid 7-3 stretch in January," Hughes writes. "Don't be surprised if the Mavericks also throttle back on Flagg's playing time. He's in the middle of his second extended stretch playing point guard, and while he's done everything to justify the hype of his draft slot and pedigree, Dallas already knows what it has in him. There's no reason to wear him down in meaningless losses, so the Mavs will slow-play his recovery from a foot injury."
This projection represents a dramatic shift from just a few seasons ago, when Dallas was a legitimate Western Conference contender. The franchise’s run to the 2024 NBA Finals raised expectations league-wide, but a series of high-profile moves and roster upheavals have drastically altered the Mavericks’ trajectory.
At the heart of this decline was the mid-season trade that shook the NBA: franchise cornerstone Luka Dončić was sent to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis and a package including additional players and assets. While the trade was framed as a shake-up designed to retool around a new core, the return has failed to produce immediate success, and injuries have compounded Dallas’ struggles.
And when it comes down to it, you can't really justify trading dang near the best player in the NBA who is going to play at MVP level for years to come just because you feel like it.
The projected 26-win finish underscores just how far the Mavericks have fallen. Dallas currently sits well below .500 and has struggled to maintain consistency on both ends of the floor. With a roster featuring young talent like rookie Cooper Flagg alongside veterans, the team should be poised for good years ahead.
But this is not one of those good years.
For Mavericks fans, the projection is sobering. It reflects not just the current win total but a period of recalibration for a franchise that once seemed poised for long-term contention. The focus for the rest of the season may shift toward development, draft positioning, and building around the pieces that could define the next chapter of Dallas basketball.