As the Dallas Mavericks brace for the end of a disappointing season, finishing under one key line could salvage their failed effort.
The Dallas Mavericks are so far removed from the preseason hype.
Entering Cooper Flagg's rookie season, the Mavericks were hoping that he and Anthony Davis--as well as Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, and PJ Washington--could keep the team afloat until Kyrie Irving returned, and then go on a postseason run.
Instead, Davis has been shipped to Washington, Irving has been shut down for the season, and the Mavericks' playoff hopes have been dead since their very first loss of the season to the San Antonio Spurs.
The only silver lining is Cooper Flagg, who is living up to the hype. In an effort to build around him, Dallas is tanking away their season. With a month left to go, they still need to get worse before they get better.
Key Number For Dallas Mavericks Revealed
Six.The Mavericks currently boast the seventh-worst record in the NBA, with a 7.5% chance to win the top pick and 31.9% odds to wind up in the top four.
If they can land in the top six, their odds for the first pick jump to nine percent, with their top-four odds moving up to 37.2%.
"Because the Mavericks lack future draft control, they must find a difference-maker in this year’s draft to put next to Cooper Flagg," wrote The Athletic's Christian Clark. "Ideally, in this epic tank race, the Mavericks can 'pass' the New Orleans Pelicans and finish with the sixth-worst record in the NBA."
Dallas is only a half-game ahead of the Pelicans, and New Orleans owes their 2026 pick to the Atlanta Hawks. Dejounte Murray is back in the lineup, and the Pelicans have no incentive to lose games. In short, it should be easy for Dallas to 'pass' them.
Looking at the fifth-worst Utah Jazz, they are also incentivized to finish as poorly as possible, as their pick is owed to the OKC Thunder unless they land in the top eight. Right now, that's nearly a lock, and they are two full games behind Dallas in the standings, and have already shut down Jaren Jackson Jr. for the season.
Last year, the Mavericks won the draft lottery with only a 1.8% chance. Dallas can't count on lightning striking twice, but in a class headlined by Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Caleb Wilson, having a little extra lottery luck could go a long way.