Rolando Blackman takes the stage Sunday in Chicago for the second straight year. The Dallas Mavericks have a 28.97 percent chance at a top-four pick in one of the deepest draft classes in years.
The moment Dallas Mavericks fans have been circling on their calendars since the end of the season is almost here. The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place Sunday May 10 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC, with Rolando Blackman representing the Mavericks on stage in Chicago one year after he watched Mark Tatum open the final envelope and reveal Dallas had won the No. 1 pick with a 1.8% chance.
This year the odds are considerably more favorable heading in.
How the Lottery Works
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order of the top 14 selections for teams that did not make the playoffs. Ping pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a drum, and four balls are drawn to create a combination.
There are 1,001 possible four-ball combinations, and those combinations are distributed among the 14 lottery teams based on their record. The three teams with the worst records receive the most combinations and, therefore, the best odds. The lottery determines the top four picks only. Everything from pick five onward is set by inverse order of record.
Dallas's Odds
The Mavericks enter with the eighth-best odds in the lottery. Here is every possible outcome for Dallas on Sunday.
No. 1 overall: 6.70%
No. 2 overall: 7.03%
No. 3 overall: 7.40%
No. 4 overall: 7.84%
No. 8 overall: 32.94%
No. 9 overall: 31.10%
No. 10 overall: 6.61%
No. 11 overall: 0.38%
No. 12 overall: less than 0.01%
Top-4 chance: 28.97%
There is no middle ground. Either the Mavericks land in the top four, or they pick eighth or worse. This outcome makes Sunday's lottery unusually high stakes for a team with the eighth-best odds.
This is the last lottery pick Dallas controls until 2031 and it arrives in one of the deepest draft classes in years. AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson headline the top of the board, but the talent does not fall off a cliff after them.
Prospects like Mikel Brown Jr. and Labaron Philon Jr. give even an eighth pick real value. A top-four selection gives the Mavericks a legitimate co-star to build around Cooper Flagg from day one.
But in a class this loaded, even landing outside the top four puts Dallas in a position to add a meaningful piece to a roster that needs exactly that.
Only two franchises in NBA lottery history have ever won back-to-back No. 1 picks. The Orlando Magic did it in 1992 and 1993, landing Shaquille O'Neal before trading the following year's pick for Penny Hardaway.
The Cleveland Cavaliers did it in 2013 and 2014, taking Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins in consecutive years.
If Dallas wins on Sunday, they become just the third franchise in lottery history to pull it off. Both previous teams that accomplished it made the NBA Finals within two seasons. One year ago the impossible happened. Sunday is Dallas's chance to do it again.