The NBA is overhauling its draft lottery with a new 3-2-1 system that flattens odds, expands the lottery to 16 teams and penalizes the league's worst records. Here is what changes and what it means for Dallas.
The NBA is overhauling its draft lottery system, and the timing matters for the Mavericks. ESPN's Shams Charania reported Tuesday that the league has disclosed a new anti-tanking proposal to all 30 general managers called the "3-2-1 lottery," set to take effect with the 2027 draft pending an owners' vote on May 28. The framework has majority support from teams and could pass with minor modifications.
The structure works like this. The lottery expands from 14 to 16 teams. Teams with the fourth through tenth-worst records receive three lottery balls each and an 8.1% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The bottom three records, the relegation zone, and the 11th through 14th-worst records each receive two lottery balls and a 5.4% shot at No. 1.
The two teams that lose the 7 vs. 8 play-in game receive just one ball each and a 2.7% chance at the top pick. The flattening of odds is the point. Under the current system, the worst teams can hold odds as high as 14%. Under the new format, the maximum drops to 8.1%, and even the bottom three teams are not rewarded with the best odds for losing the most games.
The most significant restrictions go beyond the ball count. No team can win the top pick in consecutive years. No team can win three consecutive top-five picks. Teams cannot protect picks in the 12 through 15 range going forward. The league also gains expanded disciplinary authority to reduce lottery odds or modify draft positions for teams caught tanking.
The proposal includes a sunset provision, expiring after the 2029 draft, when the board of governors can choose to continue or replace it.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver made his intentions clear in March.
"We are going to fix it. Full stop," Silver said following a board of governors meeting. The loaded 2026 draft class accelerated the urgency, with multiple teams openly prioritizing losses to maximize lottery odds.
In 2025, the Mavericks finished 39-43 as the 10th seed in the Western Conference, won their first play-in game against the Sacramento Kings, then lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in the 8 seed game. Under the current system that performance gave them a 1.8% chance at the top pick, which they converted to land Cooper Flagg.
Under the new 3-2-1 system, losing the 7-8 play-in game earns a team just one lottery ball and a 2.7% chance at No. 1. Had this system been in place in 2025, Dallas would have entered the lottery with the minimum possible odds rather than the 1.8% shot that changed the franchise.
The good news is that this rule does not touch the 2026 draft. Dallas holds the eighth-best lottery odds on May 10 in Chicago after a 26-56 season. This new system shouldn't be much of a worry for the Mavericks. Any first-round pick Dallas lands between 2027 and 2031 belongs to someone else. The front office knows it and it is another reason why building a winning roster around Flagg now, before the rules change and the picks are gone, has to be the priority this summer.