The NBA is expanding the NBA Draft lottery, fans are confused, and the Dallas Mavericks may have slightly benefited.
The NBA announced this week that its board of governors has nearly unanimously voted to reform the NBA Draft process by expanding the lottery from 14 to 16 teams.
There is also a new allocation of ping-pong balls for lottery-bound teams, which now include the No. 8 seeds in each conference's playoff picture.
"The new '3-2-1 lottery' was put together over the past couple of months and signifies the number of ping-pong balls each of the final three teams will receive in the lottery," said ESPN's Tim Bontempts.
What, exactly, does that mean? Buzz terms like "relegation" and "de-incentivization of tanking" only mean so much for the common fan.
This breakdown, released by the league's PR department, does well in laying it out, but fans are overwhelmingly confused by the concept of penalizing the teams with the absolute worst record, who now receive fewer ping-pong balls - and thus fewer chances of the No. 1 overall draft pick.
It's an effort to prevent those bottom-feeder teams from outright tanking games against equally bad teams, hoping to result in more competitive and meaningful games featuring teams not in playoff contention.
But still, we don't doubt you may be slightly confused.
For a team like the Dallas Mavericks, who own this year's No. 9 draft pick after going 26-56 this season, the intention is contend next season in a new era starring Year 2 of Cooper Flagg, a full calendar with new front office leadership, and a new head coach taking over returners like Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and others.
But when it comes to the Mavs' draft capital, Dallas has no choice but to avoid this lottery system at all costs. The team does not have full control of its first-round pick from 2027 to 2030.
However, in a way, this change can still be of benefit for the Mavericks.
Reporter Noah Weber of FanSided's "The Smoking Cuban" cites how Dallas may have better odds of keeping their 2027 first-round pick, after all, with the reformed policies.
The Mavs traded the pick to the Charlotte Hornets in 2024 to acquire P.J. Washington at the trade deadline, a move that helped the Mavs reach the Finals months later and integrate a player who remains a strong part of the current roster.
"It used to seem like this pick was gone forever for Dallas when they made the deal, since they were expecting to be a contender at this point, but that's no longer the case. They now have an unexpected chance to keep this selection," Weber says.
The Mavs' pick is protected in the top two of the first round, meaning if Dallas moves up to those positions, it would retain the selection. In this new model, it's much easier for teams to move up after the lottery because there is a larger chunk of teams with equal odds - or no "true" projected order.
"In the 2026 draft lottery, teams in the 9-14 range had extremely slim odds of jumping up in the draft," Weber recalls. "The Chicago Bulls ultimately jumped up to the No. 4 pick in the draft despite having the ninth-best odds, but every team below them stayed put.
"It used to be extremely hard to jump up into the top four with the way the old lottery was designed, but things are changing. Teams can now move up to any spot rather than just the top four."
The graph below outlines how the percentages of a jump into the top two from each pre-lottery position have increased with the new format (on the right) in comparison to the old (left).
via TheSmokingCuban.comWhile the odds remain stacked against Dallas, these changes are still substantial. After all, Flagg had just a 1.8 percent change of becoming a Maverick. Nothing is impossible.
And that's all to say that Dallas could see a major turnaround under the new coach and with better injury luck. If the Mavs are a top-seven seed in the West next year, the team will worry more about the playoffs than its pick going to the Hornets ... just avoid that dreaded bottom-three relegation zone.
