One NBA Draft expert pins who might fit the Mavs best in the NBA Draft.
The NBA Draft Lottery is three weeks away, where, on May 12, the Dallas Mavericks will see whether they can rise in the NBA Draft order for just the second time in franchise history ... and second year in a row following last year's surge to the top that brought the selection of Cooper Flagg.
The Tankathon percentages say Dallas, which ended the regular season 26-56, has the eighth-best odds of landing the top pick at 6.7 percent, a tick below the 6.8 percent of the New Orleans Pelicans' pick that goes to the Atlanta Hawks.
Entering this summer, the Mavs are surveying options for a long-term partner to Flagg, because along with the return of Kyrie Irving and a cast of role players, Dallas is hoping this lottery rookie can be a finishing touch on a contending roster.
The Mavericks do not control their first-round draft pick for the next half-decade, so this could be one of the last guaranteed options to add quality talent to a franchise that is still licking its wounds from the obvious roster management malfunctions of the past.
AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are thought to be the consensus top four prospects, in any order. But, if the Mavs aren't lucky enough to receive a top-four selection through the lottery (29 percent), who should they target?
Draft expert Nathan Grubel of the No Ceilings podcast says a freshman standout could be a perfect fit, both for the short and long term.
"I will say about Keaton Wagler, think my favorite fit for him might be in Dallas," Grubel said recently. "He’s the type of player that would benefit greatly learning all of the nuances from Kyrie Irving, while being able to play in between Irving/Flagg in the short term, long term being the PG."
Wagler, the 6-6 All-American from Illinois, scored 17.9 points per game en route to guiding the Illini to the Final Four in this year's NCAA tournament. In addition to his smooth scoring skillset offensively, Wagler has shown playmaking potential with 4.2 assists per game this season in Champagne.
When it comes to running the offense, the Mavs will gladly put the ball back in Irving's hands as he returns from injury. Dallas can also keep Ryan Nembhard in the rotation as a backup point guard to facilitate the second unit after his strong rookie season in 2025-26.
Grubel mentions Wagler as a potential replacement for Irving at the point in the coming years, but his more natural position may be on the wing where he could fit in next to Irving and Flagg as a versatile option.
If the lineup remains as it's currently constructed, the Mavs could turn to Dereck Lively II and PJ Washington as the go-to front-court players, unless Flagg takes over at power forward and Naji Marshall brings his defensive prowess to the starting lineup on the wing.
Wagler would need to improve his defensive abilities given how that was one of the major weaknesses of the Mavs' roster last year, but if it isn't a blue-chip prospect or a playmaking point guard, he could be an intriguing option in the top 10 of the draft.
