The Mavericks could walk away with one of the biggest steals in the draft if this Final Four guard is still available at ninth overall.
The Ringer NBA draft analyst J. Kyle Mann released his latest mock draft Monday and the pick that jumped off the page for Mavericks fans came at No. 9 overall. With Dallas landing the ninth pick after Sunday’s lottery, Mann projected the Dallas Mavericks to select Illinois guard Keaton Wagler, a fast-rising prospect who has climbed draft boards throughout the spring and is now appearing as high as fifth in some projections.
Wagler has become one of the most fascinating prospects in the 2026 draft class. He entered the season ranked No. 261 nationally in the 247Sports composite rankings before emerging as a consensus top-10 prospect after averaging 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting 39.7% from 3-point range across 37 games.
He helped lead Illinois to the Final Four and delivered some of his best performances on the biggest stage. Wagler scored 25 points in the Elite Eight and added 20 points with eight rebounds against UConn in the national semifinals.
Mann’s scouting breakdown focused heavily on Wagler’s potential fit alongside Cooper Flagg. He wrote that the combination of Wagler’s shooting, positional size and versatility next to Flagg is something he has considered for a long time.
Mann added there are few players in this class capable of providing Wagler’s level of shooting gravity while also handling secondary playmaking duties. The belief is that Wagler could both complement Flagg on the floor and ease some of the offensive burden when needed.
Following Sunday’s lottery, most mock drafts have Wagler going either fifth to the LA Clippers or sixth to the Brooklyn Nets. If Dallas were able to land him at No. 9, it would represent significant value compared to where most evaluators expect him to be selected. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie currently ranks Wagler fifth overall behind consensus top prospects AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson.
There are still concerns surrounding Wagler’s game. He is not considered an explosive athlete and has been described by scouts as more of a below-the-rim player at this stage of his development.
Evaluators have also noted his heavy reliance on his right hand, occasional struggles against elite athleticism and the need for additional strength development to handle NBA-level defense consistently.
Still, at 6-foot-6 and only 19 years old, Wagler’s combination of advanced shooting mechanics, processing ability and offensive versatility gives him one of the more intriguing developmental ceilings in the class. At No. 9 overall, the Mavericks could be looking at one of the biggest value opportunities in the entire draft.