The Dallas Mavericks lost the coin flip and will enter the May 10 lottery with the eighth-best odds. In the most important draft class in years, that difference is worth paying attention to.
Dallas already knows what a single lottery moment can do.
Last year, the Mavericks jumped from the 11th slot to No. 1 with a 1.8% chance and walked away with Cooper Flagg.
Now, before the lottery even happens on May 10, the franchise faces a minor setback.
The NBA held a coin flip between the Mavericks and the Atlanta Hawks, picking via the New Orleans Pelicans, to determine the seventh or eighth-best lottery odds in the 2026 NBA Draft.
The NBA announced today that Dallas lost the coin flip.
The Mavericks will enter the May 10 lottery with the eighth-best odds. That means a 6.7% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 29% chance at landing a top-four selection. Had they won the flip, those numbers would have been 6.8% and 29.3% respectively. The difference is marginal, but the floor matters more. Without lottery luck, Dallas picks eighth. The Hawks, via the Pelicans, will hold the seventh spot.
This is one of the most stacked draft classes in recent memory. AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson headline the top of the board as potential franchise players, and the talent does not fall off a cliff after them. If you want a closer look at the names Dallas has been scouting ahead of the lottery, we broke down four of the top targets right here. The 2027 and 2028 classes are widely regarded as far weaker, which is exactly why this coin flip stings a little. Every spot matters in a draft this loaded.
The Mavericks do not control their own first-round pick again until 2031. This draft class is the window. Flagg needs a running mate and the organization knows it. On May 10 in Chicago, Dallas will need the lottery balls to bounce their way one more time. Last year the odds were 1.8% and the impossible happened. A 6.7% chance is practically a guarantee by comparison.