Vegas Is Betting Against the Mavs' Biggest Advantage

Last season was one to forget in Dallas. With Kyrie Irving sidelined by a torn ACL for most of the year, rookie Cooper Flagg had to carry a thin roster through a 26-win campaign that raised real questions about how long the rebuild around him would take.

This offseason has changed the outlook considerably. Irving is on his way back, Flagg enters Year 2 as the reigning Rookie of the Year with a full development summer behind him and a new coaching staff and front office have reshaped the roster. There is genuine reason for optimism heading into 2026-27. The oddsmakers, however, are not fully on board yet.

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DraftKings has set Dallas' win total at 35.5, with the team listed at +115 to make the play-in tournament and +220 to reach the playoffs outright. Those are not the numbers of a team Vegas expects to compete. They are the numbers of a team Vegas expects to hover around the bottom of the Western Conference and little more. For a franchise coming off 26 wins, a projected jump of nearly 10 games is real progress, but it still slots Dallas firmly in the lower half of a brutal conference.

On paper, the caution is understandable. This is a young roster in Year 2 of the Cooper Flagg era, with a first-time NBA head coach in Dusty May and a front office that spent the offseason retooling around the margins rather than making a splash. The West is loaded and there is still rumored work left to be done before the roster is finalized. Projecting a team like that to leap into the playoff picture is a gamble and the books tend to wait for proof.

But there is one variable in this equation that those odds may be underrating and his name is Kyrie Irving.

Irving missed most of last season recovering from a torn ACL and his absence was the single biggest reason Dallas cratered. Rookie Flagg had to carry an enormous offensive burden without a proven initiator next to him and the results were predictably rough for a teenager doing it alone. Simply getting Irving back on the floor changes the entire complexion of this team, regardless of what version of him returns.

And that is the key point. Even if Irving does not return all the way to his pre-injury form, his presence alone is transformative for this roster. A diminished Kyrie is still one of the most gifted offensive players in the league, a closer who can create a shot when the shot clock is winding down and take pressure off Flagg in exactly the spots where a young star needs help. 

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Masai Ujiri also reshaped the supporting cast, landing former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher for almost nothing and adding rotation pieces such as stretch big Santi Aldama and combo guard Marcus Sasser in the offseason's six-team blockbuster. Together with a returning core around Flagg, Dallas has more paths to outperforming a low-30s win projection than the number suggests.

None of this means the Mavericks are a lock to blow past their number. The injury risk with Irving is real, Flagg's leap is not guaranteed and the Western Conference is deep enough to punish any team that stumbles. The under has legitimate arguments behind it.